Back in May, I released my first first round mock draft for next week’s NHL Entry Draft. Since then, there has been a three-team trade, rumors of more trades, hirings, firings, buyouts, and more. Now, with somewhat of a more clear picture, I am taking another shot at predicting the first 32 picks on Wednesday in Nashville.
For Philadelphia Flyers’ fans, the draft became much more interesting when first-year General Manager Daniel Briére swung a trade that saw top defenseman Ivan Provorov leave town for the Columbus Blue Jackets. In return, Briére added pick No. 22, two 2nd-round picks, and a RHD prospect from the Los Angeles Kings in Helge Grans. Now, with two picks in the top 22, Briére can go many different directions. Here’s my (second) guess at how the first round shakes out:
- CHI – Connor Bedard, C, Regina Pats, WHL
No real need to expand very much here. The draft card is probably already filled out. Bedard will begin his pro career in Chicago. The only thing that now needs to happen for the Blackhawks is to add some proven talent around their franchise player.
- ANA – Adam Fantilli, C, University of Michigan, NCAA
Recently, there has been some buzz about the Ducks looking at Russian forward Matvei Michkov. While I do think that could be a real possibility here, I will stick with the Ducks taking the most pro-ready player in the draft. Fantilli has said he is not yet sure whether or not he will turn pro and play in the NHL as a 19-year-old. The Ducks will really be set down the middle for years with this pick, Trevor Zegras, Mason McTavish, and Troy Terry.
- CBJ – Leo Carlsson, C, Örebro HK, SHL
The Jackets stay with their expected pick. They either have or will be meeting with Michkov at some point during the draft process. The expectation is they aren’t interested in taking him. The risk for Columbus is not seeing him enough. In Carlsson, they get an NHL ready center who has experience playing against men as he played in the Swedish Elite League last season.
- SJS – Will Smith, C, US Program
Smith has caught some flak recently for being described as a “passenger” on the same line as Ryan Leonard and Gabriel Perrault. Is that true? Maybe. Is he still very gifted offensively and has the potential to be a top-line center in the NHL? Yes, for sure. The NHL playoffs may have only hurt his stock because of the play of Matthew Tkachuk. His linemate, Ryan Leonard, has been compared to Tkachuk so much recently that he will vault into the top five. Smith’s defense and compete level needs work but his ceiling as a future all star playmaking center is enough for the Sharks to take him at four.
- MTL – Ryan Leonard, C, US Program
Montréal has another GM who loves to surprise in Ken Hughes. After winning the draft lottery last year, everyone expected them to take Shane Wright first overall. The Canadian kid, who had been compared to French-Canadian star Patrice Bergeron, being taken first, with the draft being hosted by Montréal? Slam dunk, right? Nope. Hughes opted for power forward Juraj Slafkovsky, who played 39 games for the Canadiens before getting injured. This year, Will Smith has been rumored to be a lock to the Habs at five. Instead, I think they stay with the same exact line, but take Ryan Leonard. The Matthew-Tkachuk-effect is real. Having both Tkachuk brothers in the Atlantic Division should make Hughes think that the Canadiens need their own Tkachuk and they take him here. The relentless forechecking, consistent play-driving, and always high motor gives Leonard enough helium to reach the top-five.
- Coyotes – David Reinbacher, RHD, Switzerland
In my previous mock draft, Reinbacher lasted until 24. Here, he rises to six. The Coyotes normally go with the safe, expected pick. They took two centers last year in the first 11 picks so they don’t need one here. They pick again at 12 and with the depth of this forward class, the mindset of “taking the best defenseman and seeing which forwards are still around” is very Coyotes. Coming away with a future top four defenseman and a top six forward would be a win for a Coyotes team that has not had many of those recently.
- PHI – Matvei Michkov, W, HK Sochi
The winner of the Michkov sweepstakes is the Flyers. Danny Briére, in the midst of trading half his team’s roster, shared that the team believes they will have a chance to meet with Michkov during the draft process this coming week. During the meeting, Michkov is expected to share his timeline for coming to North America, something all teams are monitoring. The uncertainty surrounding his timeline will scare teams away. The Flyers are in the position where they don’t need him for another three years. They are in the first stage of what could be a lengthy rebuild. They need to finish stripping the team down first before they think about adding to it. In three years, after his new contract with his Russian club expires, Michkov will be able to come over and help a club that is beginning to transition toward contention. On top of that, he’ll be on an entry-level deal for the first three years, giving the Flyers salary cap flexibility. That’s how this should work.
- WSH – Dalibor Dvorsky, C, AIK
The Capitals lose out on having two of the best prospects to ever come out of Russia. They still get a really good center in Dvorsky who does all things well. He signed a new two-year contract with his club in Sweden, meaning he probably won’t come to North America until that deal expires, but after that he could slide right in as the Capitals’ second line center. Dvorsky is the kind of player who could annually score 25+ goals and compile 60ish points. He could be in contention for future Selkes as well.
- DET – Oliver Moore, C, US Program
Moore is the best skater in the draft. He can flat-out fly. Others have him ranked a bit lower and he could go in the 10-15 range, but I could see Detroit taking him here out of fear he doesn’t make it to 17. There have been conversations about moving this pick, Alex DeBrincat is one of their targets, Travis Konecny has also come up in talks. Assuming they decide to keep the pick, the speed of Moore is something that cannot be developed. Edge work and stride can be worked on, but developing a skill such as passing and shooting is much easier than developing skating. This could be a steal.
- STL – Zach Benson, W, Winnipeg Ice
The Blues currently pick at 10, 25, and 29. The likelihood of them making all three picks is not very high, but they will pick here. Benson guarantees them a top-six forward with top line potential. After picking here, they can turn their attention to whether or not they can turn Nos. 25 and 29 into a player who can contribute for them now. Kevin Hayes is pretty much guaranteed to be traded and the Blues are his destination. It won’t cost them either one of 25 or 29. They can still use them to acquire a good player. Scott Laughton was originally thought to be in that Kevin Hayes deal before it fell apart, maybe the Blues will come back to him?
- VAN – Nate Danielson, C, Brandon Wheat Kings
- Coyotes – Axel Sandin Pelikka, RHD, Skellefteå AIK
- BUF – Daniil But, W, Yaroslav Jr.
- PIT – Colby Barlow, W, Owen Sound Attack
- NSH – Tom Willander, RHD, Rögle BK J20
- CGY – Samuel Honzek, C, Vancouver Giants
- DET – Matthew Wood, W, UCONN
- WPG – Andrew Cristall, W, Kelowna Rockets
- CHI (via TB) – Gabriel Perrault, W, US Program
- SEA – Braden Yager, C, Moose Jaw Warriors
- MIN – Mikhail Gulyayev, LHD, Omskie Yastreby
- PHI (via CBJ, from LAK) – Oliver Bonk, RHD, London Knights
- NYR – Ethan Gauthier, W, Sherbrooke Phoenix
- NSH – (via EDM) – Quentin Musty, W,Sudbury Wolves
- STL (via TOR) – Calum Ritchie, C, Oshwa Generals
- SJS (via NJD) – Eduard Sale, W, HK Kometa Bruno
- COL – Riley Heidt, W, Prince Geroge Cougars
- TOR (via WSH, from BOS) – Otto Stenberg, C, Frolunda Jr.
- STL (via DAL) – Dimitry Simashev, LHD, Yaroslav Jr.
- CAR – Gavin Brindley, C, University of Michigan
- MTL (via FLA) – Bradly Nadeau, W, Penticton Vees
- VGK – Lukas Dragicevic, RHD, Tri-City Americans
