Photo Courtesy of Derik Hamilton, Associated Press
When looking at the Philadelphia Flyers projected roster for next season one element that is present is the depth the team has at the forward position. Such depth regarding the forward group will definitely result in some internal competition between players for ice time and specific roles on the team. An interesting question to ponder however, is that with so many viable scoring options at forward who will be the Flyers leading scorer this upcoming season? Some easy predictions for who will take this moniker would likely be Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux or Travis Konecny but there are also some other candidates that could challenge for leading the team in scoring. With that being said, the forward who will end up being the club’s leading scorer in my opinion is winger Joel Farabee who had a breakout season in 2020-2021. This notion may be a surprise to some but there are a variety of justifications as to why Farabee will lead the Flyers in scoring next season and this will be examined shortly.Â
First off one explanation as to why Farabee will lead the team in scoring next season is simply the player naturally progressing. Clearly there is no concrete way to know if Farabee will take a step forward and get better next season. Although past performance progressions, regarding Farabee’s game, provides the indication that the young winger will continue to improve during the 2021-2022 season. Looking at Farabee’s stats from his first NHL season in 2019-2020 as a 19 year old, the winger scored 8 goals and tallied 13 assists for a total of 21 points in 52 games. Along with this, the forward did so without playing on the powerplay very often, as the majority of his ice time was limited to even strength minutes. In his sophomore season the young forward’s game drastically improved in almost all areas and as a result his overall average time on ice per game rose from 14:06 (fourteen minutes and six seconds) to 16:01 (sixteen minutes and one second). The boost in ice time and powerplay usage allowed the forward to excel and have a stellar season in which he scored 20 goals and 18 assists for a total of 38 points in 55 games and this was only 5 points off of the team lead of 43 points last season. To put Farabee’s growth as a player into perspective the 21 year old winger was only 4 points shy of doubling his point total from his rookie season and the forward did so in only 4 more games played than in his first NHL season. What this affirms is the fact that Farabee appears to be a forward who is rapidly turning into a high threat scoring winger in the NHL and is doing so in short order. Technically, if Farabee was to improve his game in a similar fashion to what was seen on the ice last season in comparison with his first season he would not double his point total of 38 from the previous season but fall exactly 4 points shy of that mark which would project him to score 72 points in 82 games in the upcoming season. Additionally, such a projection only hinges off of Farabee duplicating his improvements from his rookie season to his sophomore season and there is no telling if the sniper will be able to improve his game so rapidly in a short time frame. Due to this, it would not be a surprise to see Farabee potentially surpass this projection if he gets continued first line usage and first powerplay usage playing with the likes of Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux, Travis Konecny and Cam Atkinson.It’s hard to predict whether or not a 72 point season could lead the Flyers in scoring if previous seasons are considered though the 72 point mark could presumably lead the Flyers in points if all things fell into place a specific way. In the 2019-2020 season Travis Konecny led the team with 61 points in 66 games which is very close to the same pace as 72 points in 82 games. While in the 2018-2019 season the last full NHL season held Giroux put up 85 points in 82 games and Couturier notched 76 points in 82 games. Hypothetically if Giroux and Couturier put up identical seasons to their 2018-2019 performances they would surpass Farabee’s projection of scoring 72 points which would leave him as the third leader in overall team scoring in 2021-2022. Taking both instances into consideration it’s evident that if Farabee can at least improve this upcoming season as drastically as he did last season the scoring winger will undoubtedly be in the mix to be the Flyers leading scorer next season.
Another outlook that substantiates Farabee’s ability to potentially lead the Flyers in scoring next season lends itself to an analytical view. When taking a look at Evolving-Hockey’s RAPM (Regularized Adjusted Plus-Minus) chart of Joel Farabee’s 2020-2021 season it points to Farabee being a player who is very effective at causing goals to be scored at 5 on 5 while also generating an adequate quality of offense at even strength and this is exhibited in the chart listed below: (courtesy of Evolving-Hockey.com)
Upon dissecting this RAPM chart, the focus should be placed on the 5 on 5, GF/60 stat (goals for per 60) as it is the most accurate in regards to projecting a players on ice impact in relation to the other stats provided by Evolving Hockey. To refresh your memory GF/60 is a statistic that measures how effective a player is at directly causing goals for their team per 60 minutes of ice time. I would profess this as the most valuable stat on the chart as it is calculated based upon real goals that actually occurred versus expected goals (xGF/60, expected goals per 60 minutes). The stats on the RAPM chart are measured per 60 minutes due to each player being given varied amounts of different ice time. In terms of how to read the chart, 0 would be considered as the mean in regards to performance. So for the purpose of looking at GF/60 consider the 0 on the chart to represent the average mean in relation to NHL players causing goals for their team’s per 60 minutes. If one is to analyze Joel Farabee’s GF/60 in regards to the mean of 0 the young forward is sitting at 1.9 or 2 standard deviations above the mean. Essentially, this means that Farabee causes goals for the Flyers per 60 minutes of ice time at 2 times the level of the average NHL player who does so at the mean. Evidently, this cements the assertion that Farabee is a player who is able to drive play and directly contribute to causing goals to occur for his team which is effectively scoring points at a level double that of the average NHL results for point/goal scoring based on Evolving Hockey’s RAPM model and GF/60 for the player. This directly correlates to Farabee’s potential to lead the Flyer’s in points in the 2021-2022 season because it specifically states based on the model’s statistics that the Flyers forward plays a part in causing double the mean of goals for his team in some aspects. In turn that validates that when the Flyers are scoring goals at 5 on 5 Farabee is usually on the ice and typically being involved with goal scoring means a player is racking up the points. Therefore if Farabee can at least reproduce the GF/60 he was measured at in 2020-2021 it speaks to his capabilities in challenging for the Flyers leading scorer next season.
Regarding the Flyers leading scorer for this season, it’s important to note that a team’s leading scorer is usually considered an elite talent in the majority of cases. It could definitely be questioned as to whether or not Farabee is an elite player at this point in his career despite this though of the 20 goals the winger scored last season 16 of those goals were scored at even strength, tying him for 6th in the league with Kirill Kaprizov, Kyle Connor, Alex DeBrincat, and Brad Marchand. The interesting thing about those players Farabee is tied with is that Marchand and Kaprizov both led their respective squad’s in scoring while Debrincat and Connor were second in scoring on their teams. What this represents is that Farabee is in the same class as players who are scoring at even strength at the highest level in the NHL, as well as, players who are point leaders on their teams. As a result, it is not difficult to foresee Farabee as either the leading scorer for the Flyers in the near future or one of the top 3 leading scorers on the team. In retrospect the following player evaluation card below further cements Farabee’s offensive impact on the Flyers and the notion that such talent can further progress and affect the Flyers even more significantly than the player already has been in certain situations. (Player evaluation card courtesy of JFresh Hockey, @JFreshHockey)
This analytical data further represents the reality that Farabee is a player who has a great finishing touch, meaning he knows how to get to the areas on the ice to score goals and create scoring chances for his teammates. Not to mention the fact that the information above also presents similar data that I brought to the forefront earlier which solidifies the idea that the wingers goals caused per 60 minutes of ice time is done so at an elite level. Consequently, when analyzing the statistics introduced priorly the concept that Joel Farabee can lead the Flyers in scoring is not one that seems inconceivable.
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In terms of the Philadelphia Flyers leading scorer in the 2021-2022 season there is a list of viable candidates that could theoretically score the most points on the team. Not one individual would be surprised whatsoever if Sean Couturier, Claude Giroux or Travis Konecny led the team in points scored this upcoming season. Despite these familiar options I anticipate that Joel Farabee will be the Flyers leading scorer once the 2021-2022 regular season is complete. Farabee, is a dynamic shooter that goes to the front of the net when necessary to score but can also snipe his fair share of goals from a distance. In addition, the forward’s great skating which opens up his teammates for scoring opportunities, his passing skill, hockey sense, vision on the ice, and work ethic in relation to puck battles along the boards all contribute to the player’s ability to influence games in a positive manner and put up points. Coupling this with the analytical evidence that conveys Farabee’s 5 on 5 importance in regards to goals being caused for the Flyers and the young winger’s elite finishing talent reinforces how much of a key factor he is within the Flyers forward core and offensive schemes. What can be derived from these statistical figures and the viewpoints associated is the probability that 3rd year winger Joel Farabee leading the Flyers in scoring at the end of next season is a distinct possibility.
From all of us here at Flyers Nitty Gritty, our hearts, thoughts and prayers remain with the Hayes family during this difficult time.
