What Happens if the Flyers Miss the Playoffs?

We are almost at the halfway point of the 2021 NHL season and the Flyers have established themselves as one of the most perplexing and frustrating teams in the league. They started the season well, with a pair of wins against the rival Pittsburgh Penguins, and though they were outshot, they managed to get the job done. This would become a theme for the early part of the year, getting handily outshot and generally outplayed but still stealing some wins. The narrative has now flipped, with the team now out shooting and out-chancing the opposition but with defeat after defeat rolling in.

The offense has been fine in general; the team scores goals, even if there have been some injuries and underperformances. The defense and goaltending have been another story. Chuck Fletcher’s attempts to address the hole on the blue line left by Matt Niskanen’s retirement have not gone according to plan and Carter Hart has not been his usual calm, collected self. There has been much speculation about the team being buyers at the trade deadline, and while reinforcements could bolster and stabilize the team, the Flyers currently sit outside of the playoff picture and have lost 5 of their last 10 games. There is certainly time for them to right the ship but a question that has emerged that was not in the minds of fans coming into the season: What happens if the Flyers miss the playoffs?

The Flyers roster is comprised of a decent mix of youth and veterans. They are projected to have around $18 million in cap space if the salary cap remains stagnant and have 9 expiring contracts including Carter Hart, Travis Sanheim, Scott Laughton and Nolan Patrick. Prior to the start of this season, it seemed that the Flyers had an expensive summer ahead with these players needing resigning but the performance of these players this season could result in milder pay increases than initially thought. Even with this likelihood, the team would still not be in a position to be big spenders in free agency unless the new TV deal with ESPN results in a sizeable cap increase. If the Flyers were to miss the playoffs, however, a radical change could be the most sensible course of action.

There are certain players that would be immune to trade talks, like Claude Giroux (read: He’s not going anywhere) and Sean Couturier. Kevin Hayes’ no movement clause would also likely exclude him from any major shake-up. The areas of need for the team are on defense and probably in net, meaning that they would be trading some of their forward depth, draft picks, periphery defensive pieces and/or prospects for upgrades. The defense is the more pressing need, as evidenced by the down years from Ivan Provorov, Phil Myers and generally poor play from the bottom of the lineup. Shayne Gostisbehere has had a decent bounce back season but it has not been enough to cure the defensive breakdowns they have experienced. Myers and Sanheim are still decent defensemen with room to grow, the issue is that the Flyers’ window to contend is open now and may not be as wide by the time that the two have hit their primes.

 Some of their needs may be addressed at the trade deadline, though it remains to be seen if they pursue anything more than low-risk rentals. They are reportedly in the mix for a trade for Nashville Predators defenseman Mattias Ekholm but with other suitors, they may ultimately have to look elsewhere for defensive improvements. A team the Flyers should keep tabs on is the Carolina Hurricanes. The Hurricanes are in no hurry to move on from their good players but the impressive depth they have built on defense will make them quite vulnerable in the Seattle Expansion Draft. They could very well compensate Seattle to not select certain players but if the Kraken have a high asking price for such guarantees, the Flyers could look to take advantage of the situation. They would need to use one of their own protection slots on any acquisition given those circumstances but it could be worth it if they can interest the Kraken in one of their other players or sweeten the deal with other considerations.

A few weeks ago I wrote an article advocating that the Flyers keep their core intact through the Seattle expansion, but with the team’s current play, it becomes harder to say that they should view themselves as a serious contender that only needs minor tweaks. The defense has not progressed the way that most of the fanbase (myself included) expected after Ron Hextall’s rebuild and will need a major facelift if they want to make a deep playoff run. They have the organizational depth to mix and match to assemble some appealing trade packages, with many prospects and holding most of their own draft choices in coming years. A report came out this week that the Dallas Stars may be forced to consider moving defenseman John Klingberg due to his impending free-agent status in 2022. The Stars have saddled themselves with a pair of monster contracts given to Tyler Seguin and Jamie Benn and face an upcoming contract negotiation for Miro Heiskanen, their young defensive centerpiece. Klingberg would not come cheap and would also need a new deal but he is a high-caliber defender that would slot in beautifully next to Provorov.

If they do wait until the offseason to address their weakness on the back end, the team could opt move salary in a trade to further the youth movement that we have begun to see with a young, less expensive player with upside and pursue a big fish in free agency. Another Hurricane defenseman, Dougie Hamilton is positioned to hit the open market this summer but will likely command top dollar; he too could provide the top pair partner for Ivan Provorov that the Flyers have been desperate to find. They could also choose to pursue other free agent defensemen that have been said to be on their trade radar this season, like David Savard, Brandon Montour, Alec Martinez or even Ryan Murray. With some savvy maneuvering, they could reshape their defense to a point where they can be relied upon, even without further development from their current core.

Goaltending is another area that some decisions will have to be made. A year ago, it was almost a no brainer that the Flyers lock Carter Hart up to a long-term deal with a fairly sizeable salary. Those assumptions have been quite muddled this season with Hart’s inconsistent play. He is just 22 years old and I am fully a believer that he bounces back and becomes the franchise goalie that the team and fanbase were/are sure that they have found, though the terms of his next deal are now rather difficult to project. The team could still offer him a long-term deal with a decreased dollar amount than they likely would’ve offered him last season, or they may now have their doubts about his long term future. From the other side, his agent could and probably should seek a 2 or 3-year bridge deal so he can re-establish his value and leverage a bigger and better deal after his age 24 or 25 season. Either way, the Flyers may be on the hook for significantly less than anticipated. Brian Elliott has played well for the most part this season but he will 36 to start next season and is not someone you can confidently lean on as your starter if Hart’s struggles carry over into next season. The team would be wise to find a second goalie to take pressure off of Hart and possibly step in as the starter if need be. There aren’t many goalies that would fit the bill that would be in their price range but someone like Jonathan Bernier, Antti Raanta or Freddy Anderson could be quality acquisitions for the right price.

There is still time for the Flyers to right the ship this season. Fletcher has inquired about several defensemen across the league, though it remains to be seen if the price will be right for him to strike a deal. The upcoming offseason will be filled with intrigue, especially if the Flyers fail to make the postseason and deem it necessary to shake things up.