Photo Credit: Matt Slocum, The Associated Press
On July 25th the Philadelphia Flyers announced an eight year contract extension with winger Travis Konecny.
The contract is worth a total of $70 million with an average annual value of $8.75 million. Another facet to note is the trade protection associated with the contract.
For the first six years of the deal Konecny will have a no movement clause. During the last two years that NMC will then change over to a modified no trade clause including a 14 team no trade list.
Considering Konecny has been the Flyers most valuable and productive player over the last two seasons it’s not surprising the two camps were able to come to an agreement on an extension.
Firstly, it’s clear Konecny wanted to remain a Flyer based on the interview conducted after the contract was signed. The winger’s comments pointed to the fact that he valued winning in Philadelphia specifically.
At the price point of $8.75 million for eight years the contract is essentially market value for what Konecny brings to the table.
He’s registered 0.95 points per game over the last two seasons. In his last 136 games played Konecny has tallied 64 goals and 129 points. Not to mention, the winger led the NHL in shorthanded goals last season.
When analyzing what Konecny contributes through a purely statistical lens he is being paid an equal value to his point production.
However, Konecny’s playing style makes him an even more valuable player due to the lack of other wingers in the league that can consistently bring the aggressive style he does.
The speed, tenacity, and aggressiveness present in Konecny’s play is just as important as the point production.
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If the Flyers were to have traded the forward they would have been looking to replace that aggressive style of play due to their intentions to become a more competitive team in the years to come.
As an organization looking to improve it makes a lot of sense to re-sign the best player on your roster on a nightly basis for the last two seasons.
With Konecny being 27 he’s a player in the prime of his career. As a result, he still has the potential to get even better and produce a higher output of point production within the next three to four seasons.
If the roster surrounding him also continues to progress that could be a contributing factor to an increase in points scored throughout the remainder of his prime seasons. (27-31)
Contract Comparables
Travis Konecny’s contract extension is very similar in value to the contract Timo Meier of the New Jersey Devils received last summer.
Meier signed an eight year deal with the Devils for a total of $70.4 million, including a $35.2 million signing bonus. The average annual value is $8.8 million coming in just $50 thousand dollars more than Konecny.
Meier’s points per game average the last two seasons was 0.80 while Konecny’s was 0.95. Additionally, over the last five seasons Konecny’s points per game was 0.83 and Meier’s was listed at 0.79.
(https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/travis-konecny-points-per-game-last-2-seasons)
(https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/time-meier-points-per-game-last-two-seasons)
(https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/travis-konecny-points-per-game-last-5-seasons)
(https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/time-meier-points-per-game-last-five-seasons)
After comparing the contracts and both players’ production, it appears Konecny is typically a higher point producer on average over the last five seasons. He’s also getting paid less money than Meier with his new contract extension.
What this exhibits is the reality that wingers producing at the rate Konecny and Meier are will usually be paid around the $8.5-9 million dollar range based on the current NHL salary cap.
With the salary cap likely set to go up further over the course of Konecny’s deal, the contract will take up an even smaller percentage of the Flyers cap space as a whole.
As long as Konecny continues to produce at a similar rate until the 32-33 years old range the Flyers will have made the correct decision in extending the winger.
Even if the point production happens to slightly decline over the last three years of the contract you still received some nice value out of Konency for what you were paying him respective to the overall salary cap ceiling (especially as it rises).
Career Comparables
When carefully looking at the potential career trajectory for Konecny you can’t help but notice the similarities to Brad Marchand’s career.
For example, in his first seven seasons in the NHL Marchand averaged well below a point per game at 0.64 PPG.
(https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/brad-marchand-points-per-game-first-seven-seasons)
Comparatively Konecny’s points per game in his first seven seasons was 0.68 PPG.
(https://www.statmuse.com/nhl/ask/travis-konecny-points-per-game-first-7-seasons)
Throughout the last eight seasons of Marchand’s career from age 28 onwards (after the first seven seasons of being a 0.64 PPG player) the winger drastically improved his points per game to 1.11 PPG.
Marchand and Konecny both possess very similar styles of play. Taking that into account along with the fact Konecny has produced at a 0.95 PPG the last two years, it’s entirely possible he becomes a slightly above point per game average player over the next several seasons. Which is essentially what Marchand did starting at 28 years old.
(https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=170137)
(https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=80463)
Final Thoughts
Based on the state of the Flyers rebuild and the other players surrounding Konecny, extending him was the logical thing to do.
An important portion of the Flyers roster are at an age where they’re very close to entering the prime years of their careers such as, Owen Tippett (25), Morgan Frost(25), Joel Farabee(24), Cam York (23), Sam Ersson (25).
With that in mind, re-signing Konecny allows the winger to get better with these other talented players while they are all entering the prime years of their careers during similar timeframes. This provides the potential for this group of players to produce their best statistical seasons moving forward.
Hypothetically speaking, the core listed above should be playing their best hockey during the next 3-6 years ahead.
To continue contributing to the development of players like Michkov, Tippett, Frost, Farabee, York, Drysdale, and Ersson giving the most valuable player on the roster in Travis Konecny the contract extension the Philadelphia Flyers did made sense.
Ultimately, keeping your best player (Konecny) that has entered the prime years of his career will help foster the development of the other young players that surround him.
