Hockey fans throughout the World are anticipating the greatest sport on Earth to reconvene at some point, but Gary Bettman still stands with starting the season by January 1, 2021. With the news of Flyers Michael Raffl being loaned to Villacher SV of the ICE Hockey League in Austria this past weekend. It appears that hockey will not reconvene by the target date of January 1, 2021.
Raffl would not have been loaned for two weeks to a team in Austria during a pandemic, with uncertainty of coming back in a timely manner for training camp with the border restrictions in place due to Covid-19 if the season were indeed scheduled to begin on January 1, 2021. This news really puts pits in Flyers fans stomachs, as for some this feels like a lockout season is on the horizon, and one cannot blame them as the NHL has locked out twice in the years of the 2000’s (2004-05, 2012-13).
So what is the holdup with announcing the official start date for the new season? With the new CBA that was ratified last July, there were agreements on deferred money for 2020-21 and escrow during each season of the agreement. According to multiple sources, the league submitted two proposals to the Players association. The first proposal asked for changes solely to the upcoming season with deferred compensation moving from 10 percent to 20 percent, and escrow moving from 20 percent to 25 percent.
Originally with the newly ratified CBA in July, all players agreed to a 10 percent deferral for the upcoming year. Escrow was 20 percent for 2020-21, 14-18 percent in 2021-22, 10 percent in 2022-23, and 6 percent for the remaining three seasons.
The second proposal asked for deferred compensation to be raised to 26 percent for next season, with the escrow not being effected until years four-six of the CBA, rising from 6 percent to around 9 percent.
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I think both sides will agree to a deal, but in my opinion the season will be pushed back from the targeted start date of January 1, 2021, to around mid-late January, or even early February. Monies are not easy disputes to settle, thus both sides have to come to an agreement sooner rather than later.
The next hurdle that the NHL has to overcome is putting fans back into the arenas. Money continues to be the root of all evil’s for this great sport, as hockey is a spectator sport. According to statistica.com, “It is estimated that each team will lose an average of 1.31 million U.S. dollars in ticket sales alone for each home game that is canceled due to the coronavirus.” Simply put, hockey needs fans in the seats to offset costs, as they do not have much in a way of TV contracts to offset such costs.
Dr. Susy Hota, medical director of infection prevention and control and infectious diseases specialist at the University Health Network in Toronto, said:
“In order for there to be some kind of a herd immunity effect from vaccination…you still need about 85 percent coverage in the population for it to really be helpful. I think we do have to mentally prepare ourselves, I’d say, for at least a year to try and roll out the vaccine and feel like you’ve got coverage to a point where it’s more protective on a population level.”
What this means is even after a vaccine is made available to the general public. It could take months to even get the vaccine, thus having fans might not become a reality for the 2020-21 season. This stuff takes time, and it won’t be instantaneous. The NHL I’m sure is set to take a loss once again, and with that this coming season just has the feeling of obstacles once again.
