Photo Credit: Our very own Samantha Wismer
Ivan Provorov’s tenure with the Philadelphia Flyers has been a bit of a roller-coaster. He’s been extremely durable, having missed only three games in his entire career. He should not have missed those games, but thanks to the NHL and their COVID-19 protocols, he was forced out of the lineup. He plays close to 25 minutes every night. His partners have included Michael Del Zotto, Shayne Gostisbehere, Radko Gudas, Robert Hägg, Andrew MacDonald, Brandon Manning, Mark Streit, Travis Sanheim, Philippe Myers, Matt Niskanen, Justin Braun, Cam York, Egor Zamula, and Ryan Ellis (Four games). How many of those guys are actually a top-pair NHL defenseman? How many of them are top-4? How many of them are realistically NHLers at all?
Sure, Provorov has had a couple of rough years. Sure, he IS NOT Cale Makar on the power play. He probably isn’t the number one defender the Flyers may or may not have thought they were getting when they took him seventh overall in 2015.
Remember how well he played with Matt Niskanen in 2019-20? Remember how well he played with Ryan Ellis for four games in October? Provorov might not be a number one, but why can’t he be an excellent number two? When he has played with someone who has the ability to play in the top-4, Provorov has played well. The turnovers are an issue, but for the last four or five years, every Flyers’ defensemen have turned pucks over that lead to goals.
Provorov came off a little rough at his exit interview, saying how the media were “all experts in hockey” and we were going to “Give him our own grades.” He continued, “You’re all super-experienced in hockey and I don’t think my opinion really matters to you.” That probably is not something the Flyers liked hearing him, a leader on the team, say before they were all heading elsewhere for the summer.
Let’s put ourselves in Provorov’s position for a moment. Coming off a year where the team was expected to take a step forward and you finally had a real, top-pairing partner for the first time in your NHL career, and everything went wrong. The team was brutal, and Ryan Ellis had a mysterious injury that cost him basically the whole year. The pressure was put right back on Provorov’s shoulders to carry the defense which featured Justin Braun, a third pair guy that became the Flyers’ number two, Travis Sanheim, a reliable two-way defenseman that up to that point didn’t do anything extremely well, Rasmus Ristoleinen, a new acquisition from the Buffalo Sabres in a contract year who brought more physicality than anything else, Keith Yandle, who probably would have retired if the Flyers didn’t give him a one-year deal, and Nick Seeler, a 28 (now 29) year-old journeyman with 103 games of NHL experience. The front office didn’t really do anything to take the pressure off Provorov. So, yeah, I think we all would be a little hasty and come off a little aggressive if we felt we were being blamed for everything that had gone wrong. An exit interview should not carry as much weight as Provorov’s did.
So, in the blink of an eye, Provorov immediately becomes the Flyers’ best defenseman offensively and defensively. What did the front office do to improve the defense around him? They re-signed Ristoleinen for five years, they traded his main partner, Justin Braun, and they moved Cam York up to play with Provorov. York, who is a left-handed defenseman, said he needed to adjust to playing on his off-side, but believed playing with Provorov would help him a lot. Since Provorov was believed to be the most threatening player on the Flyers’ blue line, it became easy for other teams to key in on him. The development of Travis Sanheim, especially in the second half of the season, helped Provorov because it became clear that he was no longer the only player that could hurt other teams.
The Provorov-York pairing looked good. Provorov’s game improved and York, in his first extended action in the NHL, posted 10 points in his 30 games, with a 9-21-30 pace. This doesn’t mean the Flyers should keep York with Provorov because York is likely better on the left side than he is on the right. This means, that the Flyers have three really good defenders on the left side of the ice. A 1-2-3 of Provorov, Sanheim, and York is very good depth. On the right side, they have Ellis (assuming he is healthy), Ristoleinen, and Seeler (for the moment). That top-4 is a really good top-4, especially considering the strides that Sanheim made last season. To add to that top-4, the Flyers could decide to draft a defenseman fifth overall. The best defensemen in this class are all right-handed, and they could be taken outside the top five. Offering one year of JvR and a pick-swap to move back a couple of spots to seven or eight would allow the Flyers to rid themselves of a bad contract, and still get a defenseman that could see the NHL in 2023-24.
If this is the route the Flyers want to go, they could build a really strong defense for 2024 and beyond. They open up enough cap space to sign a free agent that could have a big impact on the club (yes I’m talking about the one from New Jersey that played with Kevin Hayes at BC and now is one of the best players in the league) and improve the forward group tremendously, while also adding a cheap blue-liner that could help fortify the right side behind Ellis and Ristoleinen. Putting a strong defense in front of Carter Hart improves the Flyers’ chances of making the playoffs next season, something everyone in the organization thinks they can accomplish.
In 2023-24, still having Provorov and Ellis together would be huge. Sanheim and Ristoleinen seem like they will never be broken up. On the third pair, York and this draft pick can develop together and give the Flyers six reliable defensemen that can all chip in on the offensive side. The lines for ’23-’24 would look something like this:
- FA – Couturier – Farabee
- Konecny – Hayes – Atkinson
- Tippett – Frost – Brink
- Foerster – Laughton – Allison
- Provorov – Ellis
- Sanheim – Ristoleinen
- York – 2022 1st Rd (Possibly)
- Hart
- Fedotov
Without any scratches or taxi-squad players, this roster has an $81,985,190 cap hit at an $82,500,000 salary cap. This leaves the Flyers with $514,810 in cap space. The cap for 2023-24 has yet to be released so the cap for 22-23 is being used.
The top-line FA LW was given an eight-year deal worth $9.5m AAV.
Cam York was given a two-year deal worth $2.5m AAV.
Tippett, Frost, and Allison were all given two-year deals worth $1.5m AAV.
Ivan Fedotov was given a one-year deal worth $925k.
The 2022 1st Rd pick would be on an ELC worth $925k AAV, the highest allowed for an ELC.
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