Photo Courtesy of, Derik Hamilton, Associated Press
When looking at the standings in the Eastern Conference the Philadelphia Flyers are 6 points out of a Wild Card spot currently being held by the Pittsburgh Penguins. Between them and the Penguins lies the Ottawa Senators, Florida Panthers, New York Islanders and the Buffalo Sabres. In overall league standings, the Flyers are 23rd in the NHL effectively placing them at 9th worst in the league. This would give them a 5 % chance of winning the 1st overall pick in the draft lottery. Their odds would be in favour of them securing the 9th overall pick with a 64.4 % chance.
In comparison to the worst team in the NHL, the Columbus Blue Jackets, would have a 25.5% chance of landing 1st overall but actually have a higher chance of picking 3rd with odds at 55.7% (per Tankathon). At the moment the Chicago Blackhawks, the 2nd worst team in the league, have a 13.5% chance of winning the 1st overall pick while they have a higher probability of selecting 3rd with a 32% chance. Lastly, the Anaheim Ducks, the 3rd worst team in the NHL, have an 11.5 % chance to pick 1st and 2nd overall and a 7.4 % chance to select 3rd overall.
Obviously, these teams would still have the highest percentage to pick in the top 3 of the draft. Along with the opportunity to select the likes of Conor Bedard, Matvei Michkov, Adam Fantilli and Leo Carlsson.
Based on the likelihoods listed above, there’s no guarantee finishing in the bottom 3 of the NHL standings will secure a top 3 pick. As we’ve seen various times in the past, teams have finished in the bottom 3 and have not ended up picking there. In the previous 17 NHL drafts the last place team in the league selected 1st overall only 9 times. Pointing to the fact tanking does not always guarantee that 1st overall pick in the draft.
What the above cements is the unpredictability of the NHL and its draft lottery system. Finishing last does not guarantee the first pick or even a top 3 pick for that matter. The Flyers are very unlikely candidates to win the draft lottery especially if they were to finish with the 9th worst record in the league. Although, there is always a possibility and we’ve seen teams move up before in the draft to select at much higher picks. Such as, the Flyers in 2017, the Devils and the Rangers.
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Another aspect to consider is that the Flyers selecting at 9th overall or in that general vicinity is not necessarily a bad thing. They still have the opportunity especially in such a deep draft to select a very talented player.
Looking at drafts in the past 6 seasons some notable picks between the 8-12 range are Matthew Boldy, Trevor Zegras, Martin Necas, Owen Tippett, Gabriel Vilardi. All of which have shown promise and the ability to contribute at the NHL level in top 6 roles to a certain extent. Along with the likes of Cole Perfetti and Adam Boqvist who are beginning to cement themselves as contributors at the NHL level and show they can be top of the lineup players as well.
When 3 potential generational talents in Bedard, Michkov and Fantilli are penciled in as the top 3 selections. It only furthers the thought process that the Flyers will have the chance to select a talented player during the 2023 NHL Entry Draft.
Usually having so many high end players within the top of the draft can push other players that would typically be a top 5 pick into lower slots on the draft board. Due to that, it heightens the chance a player that can be a difference maker will be available in that 8-12 range the Flyers will likely be selecting in.
Mainly, the Flyers not bottoming out completely this season is a good thing for the development of their younger players. Its evident many of the younger roster additions are blossoming and improving as players as the season moves ahead. The Flyers being competitive with most teams and largely participating in 1 goal games is a valuable learning experience for these younger players and their development.
Being in competitive games can only help a player develop and adjust at the NHL level. For players like Morgan Frost, Owen Tippett, Noah Cates and Cam York experiencing these types of situations is a benefit to their overall progression as players and development. Whereas if the team was not playing competitively at all the same opportunities and learning experiences these players have been accustomed to would be entirely different. There’s no telling how that could have affected their progression as players to this point.
Ultimately, when assessing the notion of a team bottoming out and tanking the negatives of doing so truly outweigh the positives. There’s no guarantee of any top 3 pick due to the current NHL draft lottery system. Actively trying to lose and tank has not proved to be a formula that directly results in sustained winning and competitive teams. Just ask the Buffalo Sabres who are only now entering a realm close to playoff contention after nearly a decade of being a bottom dwelling NHL team.
Then you have the Edmonton Oilers who were also a bottom of the league team for nearly a decade. Tanking afforded them players like McDavid and Draisaitl, however they still have yet to reach a Cup final. With two of the best players in the world they potentially may even miss the playoffs this season.
Another team that has tanked and not had much success from doing so is the Arizona Coyotes. Aside from a few successful playoff runs the Coyotes had various top of the draft selections over the years but it has never amounted to much continued competitiveness or success.
Essentially, the only modern day success story in regard to tanking would be the Colorado Avalanche. They began their rebuild in 2011 selecting Gabriel Landeskog 2nd overall. 2 years later the Avalanche selected Nathan Mackinnon 1st overall. Only now has that rebuild and tanking for high end talent finally resulted in a Stanley Cup, almost 12 years later.
There’s no perfect way to building an NHL roster that sustains competitiveness and continued success for years. Although, evidence has shown that promoting a losing culture and actively attempting to lose can lead to a slippery slope. Fostering a losing culture can be a difficult thing to disassociate yourself from as an organization even with all the talent in the world.
In light of that, creating the foundation of a winning culture begins with hard work on and off the ice. Such work ethic can foster the development of young players. Both things seem to be a proponent of what is occurring with the Flyers right now. With the ability to potentially add a top 10 pick in this upcoming draft. Along with building a culture of hard work on the ice and accountability, the Flyers franchise is trending upwards in many facets.
Forget Bedard, concentrate on getting rid of Fletcher, Clarke, Holmgren…