Projecting Sean Couturier’s Next Contract

Photo Courtesy of Derik Hamilton, Associated Press

Going into the 2021-2022 regular season the Philadelphia Flyers are a team looking towards taking a huge leap forward and re-entering the mix to contend for a Stanley Cup. One piece of the puzzle for the Flyers in accomplishing that feat is longtime center and assistant captain Sean Couturier. It’s no surprise that Couturier is going to be an integral part of any successes the Flyers have next season as the case could be made that he is the team’s best player. After this season Couturier is set to become an unrestricted free agent (UFA) so the question herein lies will the veteran center be a part of any Flyers successes beyond this season? 

The Flyers 8th overall pick in the 2011 draft is entering the final year of a six year 26 million dollar deal in which he has been drastically underpaid. The average annual value of the deal is 4.3 million dollars a year and in retrospect has left Couturier as one of the most underpaid forwards of the past few seasons when looking at the on ice value the player brings to the Flyers. Due to being underpaid for so long it is almost a foregone conclusion that Couturier will be looking for a significant raise in regards to the next contract he signs. Based on his performances and the role of number one center he’s been playing for the Flyers for a number of seasons now coupled with his defensive abilities, Couturier is set to become one of the highest paid centers in the NHL once he does sign a new contract. 

Taking a look at his stats solidifies the notion that Couturier is going to get a huge raise on his next deal. First off the center has been scoring at a 30 goal pace for the last four seasons. In 2017-18 he scored 31 goals and had 76 points, the following 2018-19 season he scored 33 goals and had 76 points, the 2019-20 season saw the forward score 22 goals in 69 games for 59 points (30 goal pace) and, this past season Couturier scored 18 goals in 45 games (30 goal pace) while posting 41 points (per hockey-reference.com). Just looking at his offensive output since 2017 exhibits the value that Couturier brings to the Flyers, he is a consistent 30 goal a season player who puts up almost a point per game. In the NHL currently those stats would warrant that Couturier is going to make at least double his current contract. When looking at comparables contract wise, in the 2018-19 off-season Matt Duchene was paid 8 million dollars a year on a seven year deal. That season Duchene only scored 70 points and had 31 goals, while the center is also not known to be a top defensive forward. Couturier on the other hand scored 33 goals and had 76 points that season while also winning the Selke trophy for best defensive forward in the NHL the following season. Putting this into perspective, as long as Couturier has a decent season in 2021-22 he is going to be paid a lot of money by some NHL team. Simply put, the type of game that Couturier can offer a team is very valuable in today’s NHL. The forward scores at almost a point per game pace, plays top line minutes night in and night out, is tasked with matching up and shutting down other team’s top lines, and is successful in doing so more often than not. He is also a great penalty killer and can score on the power play. To go even deeper into the on ice impact Sean Couturier has his overall on ice Corsi metrics are also very impressive. This past season Couturier’s Corsi for percentage in all situations was an amazing 59.7 % percent (per hockey-reference.com). Typically a player having a Corsi percentage at 50 percent means their team is controlling the puck more often than not while on the ice. Couturier’s Corsi for percentage being a 59.7 percent shows how much he drives play in the Flyers favor while he’s on the ice for the team.

Essentially, when Couturier is on the ice the Flyers usually have the puck and are in the other team’s offensive zone meaning they aren’t giving up many high danger chances in their own end which is a highly esteemed commodity. Additionally, the center also finished with the 9th best faceoff percentage in the league last season with 56.9 %, he also finished with the best faceoff percentage in the league in 2019-20 with 59.6 % percent, and over the past handful of seasons has been in the top 10 in faceoff percentage every single season (per puckbase.com). In reference to the statistics Sean Couturier is one of the top two way centers in the NHL. He puts up points offensively and is an amazing defensive player. If a contract was to be projected for Couturier at minimum, his current contract is going to be doubled and that would have him making about 8.6 million dollars a season. It’s quite plausible though with how the open market is for free agency in the NHL that he gets a lot more than that. Ultimately, it would not be astonishing to see the longtime Flyer be paid anywhere between 9 million and 10.5 million dollars a season if he does indeed make it to free agency next off-season. 

If you’re wondering whether or not the Flyers should try to re-sign Couturier the answer is definitely yes. Not only has Couturier been the most valuable Flyers player over the last 3 seasons and arguably more he has also been one of the top all around centers in the NHL. It remains to be seen if Couturier is interested in continuing to be a Flyer as over the past decade or so the team has not had much success and that can be frustrating for a player as dedicated as Couturier has been over the years. Technically, the Flyers have been able to extend Couturier to a new contract since the beginning of free agency which was July 28th. The fact that there hasn’t been any mention of contract negotiations from NHL insiders across the league should not be worrying for Flyers fans but it does raise questions surrounding the possibility of the center resigning with the team. Likely a key factor in Couturier resigning with the Flyers has to do with the upcoming season and how competitive the team is. If it seems as though the Flyers are poised to be perennial Stanley Cup Contenders for the foreseeable future it would be surprising to see Couturier sign elsewhere. However, if the Flyers have another disappointing season where they do not live up to expectations the chances of Couturier testing the free agent market and dawning a new jersey come the 2022-2023 season is not out of the realm of feasibility. One thing that is evident about Couturier is the dedication to his craft, and his will to win. The veteran playing on a torn MCL in the 2018 playoffs against the Penguins and a sprained MCL during the 2020 playoffs in the bubble against the Islanders proves that what the center wants is to win and to help his team do so in any way possible. Considering this, the club’s main tool in ensuring Couturier stays a Flyer beyond this season is being a competitive team and achieving some degree of playoff success.

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