Photo Courtesy of, Eric Hartline/USA Today Images
At the end of the 2021-2022 season for the first time in his 13 year career in which he has solely played for one NHL team, the Philadelphia Flyers longest tenured captain Claude Giroux will become an unrestricted free agent (UFA). After the Flyers recently extended center Sean Couturier to an 8 year deal with a cap hit of 7.75 million dollars it had been speculated by many that Giroux’s contract extension with the Flyers would be following suit. Despite this expectation, unfortunately an extension with Giroux doesn’t seem to be something that is in the near future for the Flyers and their captain. It was mentioned earlier this week in a press conference with Flyers General Manager Chuck Fletcher that good conversations were being held with both Giroux and his agent Pat Brisson but instead of signing a contract extension right now both parties plan to let the season play out and resume contract negotiations once this upcoming season is over with. As this information has come to light it has the majority of Flyers fans wondering if this may be Giroux’s final season donning the orange and black or, if the veteran will finish his career as a Flyer with likely the most games ever played as a member of the franchise.
If one was to venture a guess as to whether Giroux signs an extension with the Flyers at this point I would say there is almost a 90 % percent chance of that occurring. Giroux himself has stated multiple times that he would like to finish his career as the Flyers captain. The winger has also mentioned that it would be an honor to play out the entirety of his career with the Flyers organization as this is something that is exceptionally rare in today’s NHL landscape. Based on those comments alone, it is clear that Giroux’s preference would be to finish his career with the team that drafted him. Although this is the Captain’s inclination there is much at stake regarding the upcoming season and this relates to the possibility of Giroux either signing a contract extension with the Flyers or moving on and playing with another team.
At 33 years old, Giroux only has so many seasons left in the NHL at this point in his career. What this outlines is the key factor that the player only has a limited number of opportunities remaining to finally capture the ever elusive Stanley Cup Championship. In regards to ensuring Giroux remains a Flyer for the foreseeable future the Flyers accomplishments as a whole this season will have a lot to do with that. Essentially, if the Flyers have a successful year, make the playoffs and go on a long playoff run there is no doubt in my mind that Giroux will resign with the club. This would be the most realistic outcome if something like this were to occur. It would exemplify to Giroux that the Flyers are going to be a contender for the Stanley Cup for the next several seasons. Providing the opportunity for Giroux to bring the Cup back to Philadelphia, the team that drafted him, and that he has played his whole career for, which would be very enticing to say the least. On the other hand, if the Flyers have another disappointing season where the club misses the playoffs and looks like they are trending towards a rebuild it would be a surprise to see Giroux sign a contract extension. As a player who is as competitive and driven to win as the 33 year old would likely want to chase the Stanley Cup at this point in his career. Due to this, signing with teams who are Stanley Cup contenders would make the most sense for Giroux. Ultimately, it seems as though Giroux wants to finish his career as a Flyer having said that, the team’s achievements this season will dictate if the Captain will sign an extension with the club or move on to another organization that might have a better chance of winning a Stanley Cup in the not so distant future.
Analytically speaking Giroux even at the age of 33 years old is still one of the best all around wingers in the NHL. This speaks to his talent as a player but also to his dedication to training and ensuring he is molding his game in a certain way that can allow him to be an effective forward as he ages into his mid 30’s. Even as his game evolves to ensure his effectiveness there are certain elements that will always be present in Giroux’s game and this is the wingers elite passing, playmaking ability, deking, his work ethic in puck battles, faceoff acumen and his hockey IQ. All of these skills within Giroux’s game factor into how much of a play driving force the veteran still is which directly correlates to his immense value to the Flyers even after all of these seasons, as can be seen in the player card graphic listed below (Courtesy of Andy & Rono, @HockeyStatsCZ):
The graphic card above validates how important Claude Giroux still is to the Flyers and how effective of a player the winger still is even at the age of 33. What these stats represent is that Giroux is still an incredible play driver and when watching the forward play this is also very evident. Typically when Giroux is on the ice for the Flyers, scoring chances and the team having puck possession is what occurs more often than not.
Another stat that cements this line of thinking is the forward’s corsi for percentage in all situations. This stat dictates and measures how often a team usually has the puck when a specific player is on the ice. In regards to Giroux, his corsi for percentage for the 2020-2021 season was 59.7 percent (per hockey-reference.com) solidifying the fact that Giroux is an incredible play driver. While he is on the ice the Flyers have the puck, meaning they are usually pressing for offense, playing in the other team’s defensive zone and creating scoring chances. A player who contributes that much to a team’s puck possession metrics is definitely a valuable one. These stats will effect and could play a part in the negotiations from the Giroux camp in terms of a contract extension, as well as, the fact that Giroux with 43 points this past season also led the Flyers in scoring pointing to his importance to the club as a whole. It is quite clear that unless there is a steep drop off in Giroux’s play this upcoming season which I highly doubt, the Flyers need to make sure they can extend their Captain to a new contract. Therefore, the question remains what will such an extension look like?
When delving into contract extensions and UFA signings within the NHL the league can be a copycat league especially in relation to deals signed and the UFA market. In most cases comparable contracts are likely brought to the table and negotiations are worked around such baselines until a deal with both a player and an organization is reached. One particular contract signing that I believe has significant merit as a comparable when trying to project a future Giroux contract with the Flyers would be the contract Joe Pavelski signed with the Dallas Stars in the 2018-2019 off-season. This contract was a three year deal, including a no movement clause and a modified no trade clause in the last year of the deal, it also paid the player a 7 million dollar cap hit a season. The 35 year old Pavelski signed such a deal coming off a 38 goal season so obviously Giroux’s performance this upcoming season will factor into the next deal he signs. However, even if Giroux does not have a season exceeding 64 points (which he likely will) like Pavelski had the year prior to signing this deal with the Stars, Giroux is still set to sign a high salary deal based upon his previous performances in terms of point totals. Personally, I do think that Giroux will sign a deal under 7 million dollars but this is a comparable him and his camp will look towards if the Flyers try to low ball the longest tenured Captain in any manner. Though GM Fletcher’s reputation is one that points to the aforementioned possibility not happening.Â
Putting Giroux’s career as a whole into consideration, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the veteran takes a bit of a hometown discount to stay a Flyer. As long as the team is competitive this season and is trending upwards towards perennial Stanley Cup contender status I presume this is something Giroux would have no issues doing. Given that, it is known league wide how much of a competitor the player is and how much he wants to win every game in general let alone the Stanley Cup. If I had to offer my opinion I predict Giroux will sign a 3 year deal with the Flyers next off-season that holds an average annual value of 5.8 million dollars per season. Hypothetically, if Giroux did sign that exact contract with the Flyers it would be a steal as the winger could likely get upwards of 6 million dollars and potentially even 7 million dollars a season just as Pavelski did a few off-seasons ago. Additionally, signing a contract extension of that ilk would afford the Flyers some cap flexibility in the near future as the salary cap begins to rise, directly contributing to the Flyers resources to continue building a contending team. Nevertheless, I believe the determining factor surrounding the probability of Giroux resigning with the Flyers is contingent on the performance of the Philadelphia Flyers this upcoming season. If the Flyers look like a contender for the Cup it’s hard to imagine Giroux playing elsewhere once the 2022-2023 season begins. Consequently, if the Flyers find themselves missing the playoffs or being eliminated in the first round of the playoffs there is the possibility that the 2021-2022 season could be the last time we ever see Claude Giroux in a Philadelphia Flyers uniform.
