Predicting The Flyers Protection List For The Seattle Expansion Draft

The Philadelphia Flyers’ season is set to resume after a nearly two week hiatus, the result of several players on the team testing positive for Covid-19. They returned to practice on Wednesday and will play outdoors in Lake Tahoe against the Boston Bruins on Sunday, but with many players still in Covid protocols, it remains to be seen what their roster will look like until everyone returns. This will give fans and management a glimpse at some of the players still in the pipeline, such as David Kase and Maxim Sushko. This will be valuable insight as to which prospects look ready for full time NHL work, especially with the upcoming Seattle Kraken Expansion Draft set for the offseason.

The Flyers have been credited as having one of the deepest forward groups in the league, and have a few defensemen worth building around as well. This depth will translate directly to some difficult decisions regarding who to protect for the expansion draft. Some players will be protected by default, others are near-locks to be protected, but there will be some quality players that will inevitably be left out in the cold. The Flyer would be wise to use the time allotted to young players coming off of the taxi squad to see if they can realistically fill the potential gaps that could be left at the bottom of the lineup. Here is the projected protection list for the Flyers in the upcoming Seattle expansion.

AUTOMATIC PROTECTIONS

Claude Giroux, Kevin Hayes

Giroux and Hayes will be automatically protected due to the no-movement clauses in their contracts. Even without said clauses, they are both players that would almost certainly be protected. Giroux is unquestionably a top six forward, on top of being the teams captain. His days of contending for Hart trophies may be behind him but this does not diminish his value to the team. There will be some that argue about Giroux’s production but over the past 5 seasons, he sits at 17^th in total points in the league during that time. He is still a high quality forward. Hayes was signed to bolster the team’s depth down the middle, and filled the role as well as anyone could’ve hoped for. He scored 41 points in 69 games, including 4 shorthanded goals and 5 game-winners, and provided reliable play defensively, especially on the penalty kill. Both players have sizeable contracts but that is not the focal point for either player in terms of value.

THE NEAR-LOCKS

Ivan Provorov, Sean Couturier, Travis Konecny, Travis Sanheim, Phil Myers, Carter Hart

The above group of player protections almost go without saying. Assuming that the Flyers opt for the seven forwards, three defensemen and one goalie protection structure, Provorov, Myers and Sanheim are the only logical choices based on current role with the team, age and upside as far as the defense is concerned. Couturier is the team’s number one center and arguably its most impactful player, evidenced by his most recent absence from the lineup. 

Konecny had a disappointing playoffs and has not had an excellent start to the current campaign but he is still just 23 years old, has a reasonable contract, has had three consecutive seasons of 24 goals and has increased his point totals in each season he has played.  Hart is also a no-brainer choice as the team’s goalie of the present and the future.

FINAL DECISIONS

Jakub Voracek, James vanRiemsdyk, Oskar Lindblom

This is the part that will incite some strong opinions. There are several players that warrant protection slots but will ultimately be exposed. It has been speculated that the expansion draft will provide an opportunity to shed some significant salary, but with a dead cap this season and not having an end to the Covid pandemic in sight, Seattle may be reluctant to take on a hefty contract. It is important to keep in mind that we are in a time where financial flexibility is at a premium. Nevertheless, you don’t sell for pennies on the dollar when it comes to talented players.

The Flyers’ large contracts may prevent them from making splashy free agent signings, but the sentiment that they will be unable to retain young players that will need new contracts in the coming years may be over blown.  Yes, players like Hart and Sanheim will need new contracts prior to the 2021-22 season, but they also have several expiring contracts with players that they could either trade at the deadline or simply not resign (Raffl, Gustafsson, Elliot . . . . Laughton?) on top of the current cap hits of players they intend to resign. Additionally, Hart and Sanheim have likely earned pay raises and long term extensions, but have they earned massive paydays? Both are undoubtedly valuable yet much of that value still resides in potential rather than performance up to this point. While many of the players they could elect to move on from are useful NHLers, none are exactly irreplaceable, especially given the number of prospects reaching their developmental maturity.

Voracek and vanRiemsdyk are probably the most complained about players in the organization, but many seem to overlook the fact Jake is 27^th in the entire league in scoring over the last 5 seasons and JVR is playing some of the best hockey of his career this season, leading the team in points. I understand the “sell high” mentality with expensive players but the Flyers are a team that is contending now. It may be tempting to expose a big contract but you must also consider that you may also be giving up one of your top 5 offensive players, something that no contending team should be eager to do if given an alternative.

Lindblom would be the final player protected for a few reasons, mainly that he has a good value contract and is young. His production this season has been less than stellar but given the circumstances of his return to play, it is understandable that he needs time to fully regain his endurance and return to his full playing ability.

EXPOSURE LIST

Nolan Patrick (RFA), Michael Raffl (UFA), Scott Laughton (UFA), Nicolas Aube-Kubel, Shayne Gostisbehere, Justin Braun, Robert Hagg, Erik Gustafsson (UFA)

Theoretically, Seattle could take a player that does not have a contract heading into the 2021-22 season. The most intriguing of the group is Nolan Patrick, but there are several factors which may discourage the Kraken from selecting him, mainly that he is coming off of a missed season with a migraine disorder, is a restricted free agent and that his ceiling as a player is still an unknown. Those factors could also lead to a messy contract negotiation as his value is a matter of perspective; Some see his draft pedigree and potential as a top six center, others see him as injury prone and close to his maximum potential at present. The Flyers may also send some compensation Seattle’s way in order to keep Patrick off of their radar.

Patrick aside, there are not a ton of players left that would be devastating losses in terms of on-ice product. Laughton has established himself as a valuable depth forward but may have priced himself out of the Flyers’ long term plans and is a trade candidate due simply to cap gymnastics and role on the team; a team’s bottom six can generally be filled out with young, hungry players without much drop off in production. Even if Seattle picks Laughton, he may still choose to not sign with them, making him a bit of a gamble selection as well. In this regard, the Flyers seem to have positioned themselves well, with the more desirable players being exposed having caveats and additional risks associated with selecting them.

WHO GETS SELECTED?

The most likely candidate to get picked by The Kraken is probably Shayne Gostisbehere. He has shown enough in his career to be worth a roll of the dice and his contract isn’t as terrible as some make it out to be (see Erik Karlsson’s deal vs recent production if you need some perspective). He would be one of the higher potential players available amongst all unprotected players league wide and could have his role carefully calculated by Seattle management given the blank slate they will have to work with. Patrick will definitely be in the mix but, again, I have a feeling that Chuck Fletcher & Co. swing a deal to keep him in the fold.

The Flyers have built a contender for this season, as well as the future. They have young players at key positions with more that will filter in in the coming years. That being said, they should not cut bait on productive players unless there is a good return to be had. In the case of an expansion draft, there would be no return but the Flyers will still have some financial flexibility to hang on to their young guns when it is time to pony up for their re-signings.

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