Photo Credit: Our very own Michael Reeves
After Saturday’s loss taking on the Boston Bruins, the Philadelphia Flyers find themselves 4-7-1 through 12 games to start the 2024-25 season.
Through these 12 outings, several interesting trends have come to the forefront.
Most recently the team has won three out of the last five games after coming off a six game losing streak.
With this being the second article of my four part series, analysis will be provided showcasing the type of team the Flyers are shaping into, as we move past the ten game mark.
Five Observations
1) Konecny-Couturier-Michkov and Sanheim/Ristolainen have played well
Philadelphia’s top of the lineup players have been playing well as of late. Specifically, the offensive line of Konecny, Couturier, and Michkov and the defensive combination of Sanheim and Ristolainen.
Obviously, Travis Sanheim and Rasmus Ristolainen have played together in the past and have been an effective pairing. This has allowed them to pick up where they essentially left off when playing together a few seasons ago.
Due to this, Sanheim and Ristolainen don’t have to do any guess work in relation to how they will defend certain situations and scoring opportunities the opposition creates. It also ensures both defenseman are familiar with where the other will be in most circumstances.
The fact both have played together before has allowed them to seamlessly reunite as a defensive pairing and give the Flyers quality minutes as their de facto number one pairing with Cam York sidelined.
According to Money Puck, Sanheim and Ristolainen hold an expected goals percentage of 53.3 % while playing together. That is the 46th best expected goals percentage of any defensive pairing in the NHL.
The steadiness of the top defensive pairing has played a key component in Philadelphia turning around their fortunes defensively over the past few games.
Additionally, the Flyers newly formed top line of Konecny, Couturier and Michkov has contributed to Philadelphia’s improved play as of late. Mainly their effectiveness in creating scoring chances, driving play and the ability to sustain pressure in the offensive zone when out on the ice has helped the Flyers control play in more situations.
Unfortunately, they have not capitalized on many of their scoring opportunities or else they would likely have produced a lot more points.
The Flyers trio of Couturier, Konecny and Michkov has also been one of the best offensive lines in the NHL since being put together by head coach John Tortorella,
The forwards have put forth an expected goals percentage of 64.2 % as specified by Money Puck. Currently they have the 15th best expected goals percentage of any forward line in the NHL.
If Philadelphia’s top line and defensive pairing can both continue this type of effectiveness while out on the ice in regards to expected goals for percentage, it will give the Flyers a better chance to remain competitive in the majority of their games moving ahead.
2) Defensive play and structure has improved in last few games
Philadelphia’s overall defensive structure has drastically improved compared to how the team was playing through the first five games of the season.
Structurally, the team was not supporting one another down low in the defensive zone and during board battles.
Another thing to note, is the wingers have acted as better support for their defenseman as they exit the zone in the past few games.
Wingers have ensured they open themselves up as potential passing targets even if it’s for shorter passes and not the home run stretch pass.
This is something many of the forwards were not doing to begin the season. Which led to their inability to break the puck out of the defensive zone effectively until very recently.
One thing that points to the overall defensive play becoming considerably stingier is the goals allowed by the Flyers the past four games as compared to earlier in the season.
In the last four matchups taking on the Canadiens, Bruins and Blues the Flyers allowed a total of eight goals.
While in the three games prior against the Wild and Capitals, a total of 15 goals was allowed.
Based on that alone it’s evident the defensive play and limiting high danger scoring opportunities has greatly progressed from where it was just a few games ago.
3) Special teams is a positive
Through 12 games special teams as a whole has been a strength for the Flyers.
Not only has the penalty-kill remained one of the best in the NHL but Philadelphia’s power-play (yes that’s right the power-play that was ranked last in the league for three seasons straight) has drastically progressed.
Despite still having struggles entering the offensive zone on the power-play and getting set-up, the man advantage has looked more dangerous.
A lot of which can be attributed to power-play quarterback Matvei Michkov.
Michkov’s elusiveness and deceptiveness with the puck not only allows him to create passing plays and open up passing lanes for his teammates. But, it has afforded him the opportunities to beat goaltenders from distance with traffic in front using his accurate wrister.
Michkov’s playmaking ability and vision on the power-play on a whole has been a major reason why the Flyers currently have the 17th ranked power-play in the NHL with an efficiency rating of 19.1 %.
On the other hand, Philadelphia’s penalty-kill has picked up right where it’s left off after last season. Assistant coach Brad Shaw has a lot to do with that. He has both units playing an up tempo aggressive style of penalty killing.
Such a penalty killing approach involves forwards trying to pressure and interrupt the oppositions zone entries and how they carry the puck into the offensive zone. This is done to mitigate other team’s power-plays from getting set up accordingly offensively during their power-play attempts.
The Flyers penalty kill is currently ranked 4th in the NHL with a 88.4 % efficiency rating.
This cements the penalty-kill and power-play as critical assets to Philadelphia this season considering their five on five play has been sub-par.
4) Still struggling to produce offense at five on five
Although the Flyers have won three of their last five games they’ve struggled mightily to produce offense at five on five.
The most prevalent symptom of the lackluster five on five play has been their inability to sustain puck possession in the offensive zone and a forecheck for more than a handful of seconds.
This has forced Philadelphia to rely on their defense and goaltending quite regularly to bail them out of situations when other teams have controlled play.
As a result, the Flyers have focused on getting to the net to score goals instead of the typical transition style offense the team was executing last season. Mainly, this is due to the lack of puck possession in comparison to their opposition in certain outings this season.
What’s extremely puzzling about the Flyers lack of offensive production at five on five is that the roster has largely remained the same as the 2023-24 team, aside from a few new players entering the fold.
It’s quite strange to see a team that outscored the majority of their opposition at five on five last season struggle to even create high danger scoring chances at five on five over twelve games so far.
5) Flyers backups questionable while Ersson shines
Through 12 games it’s been a tale of two tapes when taking the Flyers goaltending situation into consideration.
On one hand you have Ivan Fedotov and Aleksei Kolosov who are essentially unknown commodities at the NHL level.
Fedotov has consistently posted a sub 0.830 save percentage so far this season when he’s gotten into action. As a result, Kolosov appears to be the more reliable goaltender of the two at this point.
The 22-year-old settled in nicely taking on the Bruins yesterday. He entered the game in relief of Ersson and stopped 20 of 22 shots to record a .909 save percentage.
On the opposite spectrum is Philadelphia’s starting netminder Sam Ersson. Ersson was very sharp these past three games and posted a combined .984 save percentage before leaving the matchup taking on the Bruins with an undisclosed injury.
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Ersson’s save percentage on the season as a whole is 0.901. When taking into account Philadelphia’s early struggles it should likely be higher considering they did not provide the goaltender much defensive support or goal support.
In terms of goaltending, the Flyers were in good hands with Ersson as the 25-year-old appeared to be improving on a game to game basis. However, with Ersson leaving the prior game in the first period due to an injury the club may potentially be in a wealth of trouble when it comes to their goaltending situation.
As of now, Philadelphia has classified Ersson’s injury a “lower body injury” but they failed to supply any further details on what exactly happened to Ersson and what might be plaguing him.
Ersson has arguably been Philadelphia’s most consistent and impactful player on a night to night basis this season. He’s been an instrumental part of securing their last two wins as well.
If the young goaltender is out of the lineup for any extended period of time it will be a huge loss for the Flyers. The main concern is the backup goaltenders that would step in to replace Ersson have very limited NHL experience.
It’s not the ideal situation for Kolosov and Fedotov to learn the NHL game and pace of play essentially swapping starts. If this becomes the reality for the Flyers it’s likely they will not be as competitive as they would have been with Ersson in the crease moving forward.
Unfortunately, if Ersson does have to miss any significant time, the important aspect will be finding some sense of stability with the backup position.
Final Thoughts
Ultimately, it’s been a rollercoaster of a start to the 2024-25 regular season for the Philadelphia Flyers through 12 games.
Despite the Flyers having difficulties both defending and scoring, things are coming around when it concerns their defensive play and cohesiveness on the ice as a five man unit.
One critical facet to note moving forward, is that Philadelphia’s five on five offensive output and transition offense will need to improve in the coming weeks for the team to stay afloat amongst the other Eastern Conference playoff contenders.
There’s only so much they can rely on their defense and goaltending and continue to pick up points in the standings.
It seems each player from last season that produced, for example, Foerster and Tippett, were scoring goals on a line with Coots and/or TK. While those two players were scoring with them, they also produced with Frost when he’s consistent, and Foerster with Poehling. Frost has been snakebitten but hasn’t driven the play as he was last season. Tippett seems pressured and forced into low percentage passes and shots resulting in blocked shots or missing the net. Foerster and Tippett need linemates that consistently drive play and take the focus off of them in order for them to play to their best capabilities. Farabee hasn’t been the impact player as we all thought he would be so far this season, and Laughton, aside from the 2 goal game, hasn’t done much when needed. Do you think Flyers trade any of those players thus season to try and get players that will better the younger players? Foerster and Tippett have the skills to produce high points, but I feel as though they struggle when having inconsistent linemates. We know what they can do. Also, why does it seem like they go through these stretches of missing the net so often? How do they improve that?