Exploring The Big Fish For The Flyers: The Costs Associated With Obtaining Patrick Laine, Johnny Gaudreau, William Nylander, And Matt Dumba

Author’s Note: After what have been a crazy few months for me personally, I am thrilled to be joining the team here at FlyersNittyGritty. I have read much of the good work done over the past few years and couldn’t be happier to be writing for a group as passionate about Flyers hockey as I am. Big shoutout to Jamey Baskow.

In what seemed like the first season to inspire optimism in the last decade, the Philadelphia Flyers ultimately fell short of glory, ousted by the New York Islanders in the second round of the playoffs in seven games. While there were certainly positives to be found, the club had some glaring issues that will need to be addressed this offseason. Some of the solutions will emerge from within, but general manager Chuck Fletcher has not ruled out exploring trade options, namely, goal scorers. With many teams looking to shake things up after early playoff exits and COVID-19 impacting many clubs financially, there already appear to be some major names available on the trade market.

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It has been speculated that some teams will be setting internal salary caps and cutting costs. Fans of all teams always want shiny new toys but don’t always have realistic views of what it could cost their favorite team in a trade. No team willingly trades star players for spare parts and mid-round draft picks. Arguably the most important consideration to make is the other team’s rationale behind making a move; what is their primary motivation. Here is a look at some players that are reportedly available and what it would cost the Flyers to acquire them.

JOHNNY GAUDREAU – CALGARY FLAMES

Package: Scott Laughton, Travis Konecny, Shayne Gostisbehere 2021 1^st round pick

Flyers fans have always had an affinity for hometown heroes and Johnny Gaudreau is no exception. The former Hobey Baker winner has seemingly fallen out of favor with the Calgary Flames, who may look to move him this offseason. The primary motivation for Calgary would be a general roster shakeup after another disappointing playoffs. If this is the case, he will not be had for cents on the dollar. On the contrary, we will likely see a bidding war situation if he is indeed available. For this reason, coupled with the fact that he is a 27-year old that is one season removed from a 99-point campaign, the price would be quite high if the Flyers are serious about bringing in Johnny Hockey.

The roster pieces that would interest the Flames most would likely be Scott Laughton and Travis Konecny. Konecny is a budding star with what now seems to be a favorable cap hit at $5.5 million annually; he is also a fan favorite, which would make losing him sting that much more. Laughton has established himself as a do-it-all middle six contributor with a very manageable contract as well. Shayne Gostisbehere is more of an after thought in this scenario, a high potential flier if he can regain his 60+ point form. To sweeten the deal further, a first round pick would also be necessary, making for a fairly hefty package. Even so, either team could realistically scoff at the price.

The Flames would also likely need to include more salary in a potential deal to balance the books; a player like Sam Bennett would fit the bill. Another alternative would be the Flyers retaining salary on Gostisbehere. Either way, there would be details to iron out. Gaudreau can be streaky, as scorers tend to be, and he does not possess the same hard-nosed attitude or intensity that Konecny is known for, but when he is on, he can take a teams offense to another level.

PATRIK LAINE – WINNIPEG JETS

Package: Travis Sanheim, Joel Farabee, 2021 1st round pick, 2022 2nd round pick

The Winnipeg Jets seemed like a serious contender as recently as last year but the wheels fell off in a major way when the team lost defensemen Dustin Byfuglien, Tyler Myers, Ben Chariot, and Jacob Trouba over the course of a single offseason. Even with the presence of Vezina Trophy winner Connor Hellebuyck in net, a well-rounded defense is essential for contending clubs and the Jets find themselves in need. As a result, they may soon be forced to part with serious assets to remedy this issue. Enter Patrik Laine.

The former 2^nd overall pick exploded onto the scene in 2016-17, scoring 36 goals as a rookie, and followed that performance with a 44-goal effort in 2017-18. He has 247 points in his 305 career games and is still just 22 years old. The only reasons why Winnepeg may consider moving him are his RFA status at the conclusion of the 2020-21 season, which should yield an enormous payday, and the magnitude of the haul a Laine deal could produce. Needless to say, the Jets will demand a king’s ransom if Laine is on the move.

It has been reported that the Flyers were one of the teams that were in serious talks with the Jets about Laine at the draft, with the Orange and Black ultimately walking away from the table. The Flyers make for a natural trade partner due to their glut of young defensemen with high upside, some of which will assuredly be part of any potential deal for Laine. The most appealing of the group are Ivan Provorov, Travis Sanheim and Philippe Myers, with Provorov as probably the only untouchable. Sanheim seems like the more likely candidate for a potential move due to Myers’ more desirable right-handed shot, but his potential to be a top-pair defender is still yet to be seen. Sanheim also has the offensive instincts to quarterback a team’s powerplay, something he has seldom gotten the opportunity to do in Philadelphia.

Another necessary inclusion for a trade to be plausible would be 2018 first round pick Joel Farabee, who showed top-six upside in his rookie season. Add in a pair of high value picks and a deal starts to materialize. The asking price will likely be discounted due to the potentially huge deal it would take to resign Laine after next season but for the Flyers, a 6-foot-5, 22 year-old sniper with 40 goal potential may be worth the cost.

NIKOLAJ EHLERS – WINNIPEG JETS

Package: Travis Sanheim, Michael Raffl, Wyatte Wylie, 2021 1^st round pick, 2022 3^rd round pick

Another candidate to be moved from Winnepeg is Nikolaj Ehlers, who signed his 7-year, $42 million contract last offseason. He could be a more affordable option, but only mildly. He, too, has been very offensively productive in his young career, scoring 257 points in his 369 career games. He is two years older than Laine and isn’t the same caliber of goal scorer but Ehlers would be one heck of a consolation prize. He would easily slot into one of the Flyers’ top two lines and is a gifted playmaker that still possesses good finishing ability. His contract is also easy to swallow, making him arguably more appealing than his Finnish teammate.

Sanheim would again serve as the centerpiece of a deal, with the versatile and, more importantly, affordable, Michael Raffl joining him. Wyatte Wylie is not just a throw-in in this trade either; he was quietly the second highest scoring defenseman in the WHL this past season, now looking like a frontrunner for a spot in the Lehigh Valley Phantoms’ top defensive pairing in 2020-21. A first round pick in next year’s draft and a future third would be the icing on top to get a deal done.

WILLIAM NYLANDER – TORONTO MAPLE LEAFS

Package: Philippe Myers, Isaac Ratcliffe, Mark Friedman 2021 1st round pick

The next trade option’s fate is heavily connected to one of the top free agents on this year’s market. That player is St. Louis Blues defenseman Alex Pietrangelo. The Toronto Maple Leafs have expressed interest in signing Pietrangelo, as well as every other high profile free agent since the beginning of time. The Leafs are in desperate need of upgrades along their blue line after yet another disappointing playoff exit, and the Blues’ captain would perfectly fit the role of the number one defender that they desire. The problem? The massive contract that Pietrangelo is set to sign as a 30-year-old on the heels of captaining his team to Stanley Cup glory while playing top minutes. The Leafs are strapped for cap space and may look to unload one of their high-salary forwards to make this possible.

Of Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner and William Nylander, Nylander is the most likely candidate for a trade. Just 24 years, Nylander scored 31 goals in the shortened season this year looks to be a consistent 60+ point scorer going forward.  He carries a salary of $6.8 million per season, so with budgeting for Pietrangelo in mind, the Leafs would want a strong value as well as significantly less salary in return.

The Leafs would undoubtedly seek one of the Flyers young defenders as the centerpiece of a deal.  Phil Myers is a restricted free agent this offseason, but a bridge deal seems like the most probable outcome, as he will look to bolster his value and leverage a better contract. He is not a player the Flyers would give up easily but a young goal scorer with growth potential would be a worthy return.  Chuck Fletcher & Co. would have to sweeten the deal given Nylander’s more established track record and potential, but again, Toronto wouldn’t want more salary coming back.

6-foot-6 forward prospect Isaac Ratcliffe has potential as a goal-scoring power forward and defenseman Mark Friedman has been on the fringe of the Flyers roster for the last few years; both could contend for roster spots on a Toronto team looking to fill out the bottom of their lineup with inexpensive options. Add in a first-round draft pick and a deal starts to become plausible. The Flyers are in need of a skill infusion to take the offense to the next level and possibly alleviate some of the team’s power-play struggles, and in Nylander, they could obtain just that. Losing a player with Myers’ potential would hurt but with young defensemen like Yegor Zamula and Cam York just a year or two away from NHL action, the blow to the team’s positional depth is significantly softened.

MATT DUMBA – MINNESOTA WILD

Package: Morgan Frost, Shayne Gostisbehere, 2021 2nd round pick

The last and possibly the best fit among high profile trade targets would be Minnesota Wild defenseman Matthew Dumba. With the recent retirement of Matt Niskanen, the Flyers suddenly have a hole on their blue line, which Dumba could easily fill. The Flyers could take the unexciting, and, honestly, risky approach of relying on internal development from their defense, but Niskanen’s presence brought out some of the best hockey of Ivan Provorov’s career, and it cannot be overlooked that he was playing top pair minutes last season. Myers or Sanheim could be moved up to play with Provorov, yet it would be hard to argue that the team’s defense would be better heading into next season than it was in this past one.

Dumba makes sense for the Flyers in several ways beyond positional need. Dumba was the 2012 first round draft choice of Chuck Fletcher, the GM of the Minnesota Wild at the time.  He also is only 26 years old, making the three years left on his deal easier to swallow.  Another nice factor is that the no trade clause in his contract doesn’t kick in until the start of the 2021-22 league year, which should be after the Seattle Kraken expansion draft. Dumba could very well be a player they end up protecting in that draft, but it is nice to at least have the choice.

Dumba is a solid skater, physical and has nice offensive skills, but should not be confused with a shutdown defender. He isn’t a complete liability in his own end, but he doesn’t exactly shine there either. If Dumba were to become a Flyer, he would likely slot into a spot on the second pair, with Myers and his right-handed shot lining up next to Provorov. The cost for a top four defender with his contract and skillset won’t likely be low.

I would expect Minnesota to covet one of the Flyers’ prized prospects as well as someone to take Dumba’s spot in the lineup.  The Wild need center depth after trading Eric Staal to Buffalo and Morgan Frost would fit the bill. It would be painful to let a player with Frost’s potential go, but if Nolan Patrick is going to return to play next season, Frost would be the odd man out. Also heading to Minnesota would be Shayne Gostisbehere and a 2021 second-round pick. Dumba’s hard-hitting style would win fans over easily, and in the right usage, he could finalize the Flyers’ defense for 2020-21.

RISK AND REWARD

The cost associated with acquiring star players is always hard to fully imagine. It is tempting to exclude top players in hypothetical scenarios but the truth is you never get something for nothing. The Flyers are well positioned in terms of prospects, reasonable contracts and owning the majority of their draft picks in upcoming years, making them primed for a big move. Even with this in mind, the team has already proven to be good enough to compete and may be a few internal developments from doing some serious damage. Indications are that Chuck Fletcher has been diligently working the phones, in search of that next big deal.