Doherty’s Round 1 Mock Draft (Flyers)

By way of the NHL Draft Lottery held on May 8, the Philadelphia Flyers will presumably select seventh overall in the upcoming 2023 NHL Entry Draft. Flyers’ new GM Danny Briere will make his first selection of his post-playing career having been named full-time GM on May 11. The first round of the draft will begin on the night of Wednesday, June 28, in Nashville, Tennessee. Here’s a look at how the first 32 picks could shake out:

CHI – Connor Bedard, C, Regina Pats (WHL)

Connor Bedard to the Chicago Blackhawks is the most obvious first overall pick since Connor McDavid to the Edmonton Oilers back in 2015. Bedard shoots like Auston Matthews, skates like McDavid, has the hands of Sidney Crosby, and the vision of Mitch Marner. The questions with Bedard are things he cannot really control. He lacks size. He can add strength to his 185 lbs frame, but still only stands at 5’10”. Do the Blackhawks have enough pieces around him where he does not have to step in and be the best player right away? Absolutely not. What Chicago should be doing now is finding established veterans with enough skill to play around Bedard. Chicago lucked into a generational talent, they cannot possibly get it wrong, right?

ANA – Adam Fantilli, C, University of Michigan (NCAA)

The worst team (points-wise) in the NHL last year was the Anaheim Ducks. In an eerily similar situation to 2005, when they also had the best odds at the first pick, the prize was now Penguins captain Sidney Crosby. Should the Ducks be furious? Yes. Will they still get a great player? Hell yes. Adam Fantilli, the reigning Hobey Baker award winner from Michigan, will go second overall due to his sky-high ceiling at both ends of the ice. Fantilli will be Ducks’ version of Aleksander Barkov. Fantilli put up 65 points in 36 games in the NCAA. He stands at 6’2”, weighing in at 195 lbs, giving him a pro-ready body. Bedard is the best draft eligible player this year, but Fantilli goes first overall in the last three drafts. He’s that good.

CBJ – Leo Carlsson, C, Örebro HK (Sweden – SHL)

Columbus, who only pick third because Jonathan Toews missed a breakaway in overtime of his final game in Chicago, and maybe career. Here, they take the fourth-best player in the draft. Leo Carlsson is an explosive playmaking center from Sweden who projects as a point-per-game top-line center in the NHL. Despite only being 18, he played in Sweden’s top league, the Swedish Hockey League (also referred to as the Swedish Elite League). While playing against men, Carlsson solidified his place as the second-best European skater. He potted 10 goals with 15 assists in 44 games, and added another goal and nine assists during his 13-game playoff run. He did that all while flashing his magic hands and showing off his offensive creativity. The only question is when will play in Columbus?

SJS – Matvei Michkov, W, HK Sochi (Russia – KHL)

Michkov is the best European skater. The geo-political issues and his contract status with his Russian club will play a role in when he gets drafted. Make no mistake, Michkov is another Kirill Kaprizov, an offensively gifted playmaker with a lethal shot. If he played in the CHL, USHL, NCAA, or literally anywhere other than Russia, he goes second or third without a doubt. The 18-year-old winger does have a lot of work to do adding size. He currently stands 5’10” which is not alarming, but weighs in around 150 lbs. For a 14-year-old, sure that’s a good weight. For a professional athlete, that raises alarms. In addition to his light frame, he does not provide much defensively. Patrick Kane is a comparable player here. The Sharks also need to finish tearing it down before they can start building it back up, meaning they don’t need Michkov to come over in the next two years. They can allow him to fulfill his commitment to his Russian club before coming over to strike fear into the hearts of goalies in the Pacific Division for years.

MTL – Will Smith, C, US Program

Smith, who is committed to Boston College next year, goes fifth overall to the Canadiens. A pure scorer, Smith stands exactly six feet tall and weighs in at a tick over 170 lbs. Like the others before him, adding strength should be a focal point at BC, where he will play with 2022 fifth overall pick, Cutter Gauthier of the Philadelphia Flyers. Smith never ranked outside the top-9 by numerous scouting networks, and ranked as high the third best North American skater by Central Scouting. His 51-76-127 explosion at the US Program puts him second all-time behind only teammate Gabe Perrault, who had 132. His 191 points at the program sits second all-time behind only Jack Hughes’ 228. He will slide into the Canadiens’ lineup giving them a very nice 1-2 punch with Nick Suzuki for a long time.

ARI – Zach Benson, W, Winnipeg Ice (WHL)

Arizona, who took two centers in the first 11 picks in 2022, get another forward who can really play all three forward spots in Benson. The offense has always been a strength as evidenced by his 63 points in 58 games in 21-22 followed by 98 in 60 in 22-23. Despite his high regular season numbers, he was a bit more “pedestrian” in the WHL playoffs this year with a 7-10-17 line in 15 games after a 9-14-23 line in 15 games in the 21-22 playoffs. The left shot profiles him as a left wing that can play down the middle. Needs to cut down on his amount of giveaways by simplifying what he does on the ice.

PHI – Dalibor Dvorsky, C, AIK (Sweden)

Earlier this week, I wrote about why the Flyers should trade up to fourth overall for Michkov. In the most likely case that they stay at seven, this is the pick. This feels like a Philadelphia pick. A safe, two-way center, with the ability to score 50+ points as a second line center. A player that comes to mind when watching Dvorsky is Kevin Hayes. Hayes, the 200-foot center that John Tortorella said he was excited to work with but then ended up healthy scratching, protects the puck well by using his size. Dvorsky doesn’t have the 6’5” frame of Hayes, but he protects the puck well, has patience, and can put the puck in the net when needed. Despite seemingly wanting to move on from Hayes, new GM Danny Briere takes a similar player that Philadelphia can depend on as a second line center in the future. The 2024 draft class is where Philadelphia can really cash in on their need for high-end talent with another expected top-10 pick to go along with the Florida Panthers’ first-round pick acquired with Owen Tippett in the Claude Giroux trade.

WSH – Ryan Leonard, C, US Program

After watching the Flyers pass on both dynamic American centers, the Capitals get their choice of which one they think is the better player. Leonard goes here and will play at least one year at Boston College (probably two) before signing an entry-level contract with the Capitals. Leonard’s rise during the U18 Worlds vaults him into the top 10 of this draft. He posted eight goals and 17 points overall during the U18 Worlds and 51 goals and 94 points with the US National Team this past year. His best skill is his shot. He scored more points per game in his draft year at the program than Logan Cooley, Trevor Zegras, and Dylan Larkin. Leonard has a high ceiling offensively and is a very good skater. His balance and strength with the puck allows him to get to the goal-scoring areas on the ice. More of a finisher instead of a set-up guy.

DET – Oliver Moore, C, US Program

The third center off the board from the US Program, Oliver Moore stands 5’11” and weighs in at 190 lbs. While centering the second line, he posted a 26-38-64 line in 53 games. Moore is committed to Minnesota, where he should get two years to play at. On the ice, Moore is the typical playmaking center. Current Red Wings’ captain Dylan Larkin is not a comparison for Moore, as he is a good skater and uses his vision to set up teammates. Moore can absolutely fly on the ice which boosts his ceiling so high. It would not surprise me if we look back at this draft and say Detroit got a steal with Moore at nine.

STL – Eduard Sale, W, HK Kometa Bruno (Czechia)

Sale is one of the better playmakers in the draft. He goes 10th here to the Blues, who could turn their team around a lot quicker than some may think. He has a good shot and playing with Kyrou in a few years should help his assist numbers as well. Like most in this class, his skating could use some work. His stride has been described as “choppy” but he survives out on the ice. In seven games at World Juniors, Sale came away with six points in seven games on one goal and five assists as Czechia took home the silver medal.