Photo Courtesy of Derik Hamilton, Associated Press
Yesterday morning the Philadelphia Flyers pulled off a shrewd piece of business when they signed a key component to their future in winger Joel Farabee to a contract extension. The new deal consists of a 5 million dollar cap hit for the next 6 seasons and will begin in the 2022-2023 season. When dissecting the extension it’s crucial to note that Farabee led the team in goal scoring last season with 20 goals in 55 games in only his second season in the NHL and at age 21 years old. One could argue that for such a small sample size it may have been a safer bet to not invest all of this money into Farabee but to sign a bridge deal with the forward and let him prove to the team he is worth such a long term commitment. Despite this, I understand the Flyers perspective in signing the budding winger to a 6 year deal because technically those last 2 years of this deal would be unrestricted free agent years for Farabee. What this means is that if the Flyers signed the forward to a 4 year bridge deal (or even a 2 year deal and another 2 year deal) taking up his remaining restricted free agent status (the team controlling the players rights, in this period of time they can only sign with the Flyers) Farabee could have then gone to unrestricted free agent status and signed with any team in the entire league. Once a player enters into that market automatically the stakes can change due to the fact that any team has the right to bid for this player’s services and offer them any contract they think would be suitable from their point of view. Avoiding this was likely a factor that came to the forefront when the Flyers signed this contract extension with Farabee. Essentially, the organization is banking on the idea that it’s a much better situation to be paying Farabee a little bit too much money to start this contract versus having to get into a bidding war with another team for his services in the UFA period in the future. This could have resulted in them having to sign Farabee to a deal with a substantially higher cap hit than this current contract in 4 seasons from now. So effectively cap savings are lost now for potentially substantial cap savings during years 5 and 6 of this deal. Considering this, it only made sense for the Flyers to sign Farabee with this cap hit and term on the table as it allows them further cap flexibility throughout the following years, to add other players to the team, or use the money saved to retain current roster players, that may be due for a raise.
When analyzing all the information accordingly, I think it would be safe to say that Farabee is a 5 million dollar player at this moment. That may be a bold statement to make but based on the forwards performance this past season there are no indications that the winger would not be worth the 5 million dollar charge against the Flyers salary cap. First off the winger led the team in goals this past season. While also finishing 5th in team scoring with 38 points and this was only 5 points off of the team lead that was 43 points. Projected to a full 82 game season schedule Farabee would have scored about 30 goals last season as at the 41 game mark this season he had 15 goals, so if one was to double that it would technically be 30. It’s clear the player would have scored roughly 30 goals this past season if it was indeed a full season, and he likely would have scored around 60 points. As at the 41 game mark this season the player had 30 points so doubling that equates to 60 points if the player kept the same scoring pace all season. In addition, the young forward scored at such a rate only averaging 16:01 TOI (sixteen minutes and one second of ice time) per game with limited power play opportunities in those minutes. Naturally, as Farabee’s ice time and power play time increases it’s not out of the question to hypothesize that his scoring totals will also improve.
Typically players who score at the level Farabee has this past season are worth significantly more than 5 million dollars a season. To compare Farabee to some of his peers, of the 20 goals the winger scored last season 16 of those goals were scored at even strength, tying him for 6th in the league with Kirill Kaprizov, Kyle Connor, Alex DeBrincat, and Brad Marchand. Going into next season every single one of those players mentioned above will take up more salary cap space than Joel Farabee’s 5 million dollar cap hit will once his contract begins, even though Farabee matched their even strength goal scoring production. Additionally, this past season other players who scored 20 goals include Nathan Mackinnon, David Pastrnak, Chris Kreider, Kevin Fiala, Gabriel Landeskog, Jonathan Huberdeau, Mitch Marner, and Phil Kessel. Joel Farabee will have a lower salary cap hit than every single one of those players mentioned above once his new deal begins with providing the same amount of goal production. Not to forget that all of these players listed below scored 19 goals in the 2020-2021 season, Jakub Vrana, Tomas Hertl, John Tavares, Johnny Gaudreau, and Bo Horvat. What these players have in common is higher cap hit’s than Farabee’s new contract showing that the winger is out producing player’s held in such high regards around the league goal scoring wise for even less money. This exhibits the notion that the value Farabee will provide to the Flyers for the amount of money he is currently making even if he does not improve whatsoever is a steal in comparison to some of the contracts and cap hits other players are being paid. In reference to production levels league wide, Farabee making 5 million dollars yearly already seems like it is a great contract for the Flyers. At least when it pertains to goal scoring as players producing at the same rate as him are being paid more than him. The impressive thing about Farabee’s performance this season is the fact that he is only 21 years old and had such a drastic improvement in his production and two-way play from his rookie season to his sophomore season. It’s only reasonable to believe that Farabee still has much room to improve his play in all facets of the ice and this will likely translate to even higher point production from the forward in the near future, as well as, a more well rounded game as he continues to add NHL experience to his repertoire.
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One aspect that needs to be taken into consideration, in terms of analyzing this contract extension, is Farabee showing glimpses of being the Flyers most dangerous offensive weapon last season. With that also came the emergence of a shot that is hard, accurate and can beat goalies cleanly beyond the dots of the circle which is a tough task in the NHL. If Farabee continues to refine and enhance his game over the course of this contract there is no denying that the extension will prove to be a steal for the Flyers. Along with this, it could be proclaimed that this signing has the potential to end up being one of the best deals in the league in relation to dollars paid for value in production on the ice. As it was discussed above, the 5 million dollar cap hit Farabee is being paid in this deal in accordance with other players statistics last season are already underpaying him at least when comparing how much more these forwards around the league are being paid for similar or even less production. Therefore, with Farabee already being a valuable asset on the Flyers roster offensively at such a young age everything about this deal, whether it’s the player’s actual statistical production versus money being paid, or his two way game and attention to detail on the ice, it’s all a win for the Flyers. Ultimately, it’s hard to see any area in which the Philadelphia Flyers are losing with this contract extension. General Manager Chuck Fletcher has locked in a major piece to the Flyers future and their core going forward at a price that may very well be one of the most enticing bargains in the NHL in the years to come.
