Photo Credit: Len Redkoles/NHLI via Getty Images
Hello all and welcome to my first piece here on Flyers Nitty Gritty. I’m very thankful to be able to release my content here and I’m excited to get to work. I’ve been running my Instagram page philadelphiaflyers.hockey for about 4 years now. It started out just for my love of the Flyers and eventually I ended up posting long captions for game reviews or whatever I had on my mind relating to the Flyers. Over those 4 years and still to this day I’ve always been trying to better my knowledge of the game and find better ways to evaluate players and games. I don’t remember exactly how or when but I know at some point I was opened up to the advanced stats world. Immediately thought it was a great tool and was extremely useful for gaining additional knowledge on players. As good of a tool as I thought it was, there was still something missing to it for me. Although it may be a good way of showing a player’s impact using the proper context, there was always a lack of detail involved to me. That’s when I decided to start tracking my own stats. I think using my stats along with other advanced numbers gives you a much better understanding of what that player is actually doing. After about a year and a half of tracking my own stats I’ve made my own system, involving my own and other numbers, resulting in 4 different categories. Here I’ll be showing the Flyers numbers in this system from this recent 2021 season. Now it may be a lot to go through but before I get into the players I’m going to go over what’s in this system.
I’ll do a quick overview of what my stuff is and show what’s worth what. My philosophy with these numbers was that everything is revolving around goals and assists being worth one point. Goals and assists are such a small part of the game and some defensive plays can be just as important. Along with that offensively there’s a lot of variables that go into them outside of a player’s control. I’d say goaltending being the largest factor, or say a player makes a great pass but the receiver of the pass makes a bad play after, that’s not the passers fault. So all of these numbers may seem like they have a large value compared to a player‘s point total, but goals and assists alone are not something I hold a very high value in. This is a system showing overall what a player is doing and it’s a fuller overview of a player’s game.
There are 4 different categories; even strength offense, even strength defense, power play and penalty kill. All four categories are added up into a final overall. Forwards and defenseman both share some stats, but there’s also some they don’t share. Some of the stats they do share have different values. The difference in positions results in generally different numbers for players, the difference in values is to balance out the overalls. All other numbers that are not mine are gathered from https://www.naturalstattrick.com
Anything that I track myself will finish with an asterisk and I’ll explain what that stat means.
Here’s everything that goes into even strength offense
The Forwards:
- Goal = 1
- Assist = 1
- Good offensive plays* – A good offensive play is any play made by a forward that either did or potentially can create offense. Generally these plays are either passes or shots. I have three different categories for this stat; shot, pass and other but they all hold the same value currently. The value difference here is where the play happens. There’s non slot good offensive plays which are worth 0.6 points, and there are slot good offensive plays which are plays made closer to the net which are worth 0.8 points.
- Pucks lost* – This is my giveaways stat. If a player loses the puck whether it’s by having their pass intercepted or losing it due to a one on one play it’s a puck lost. Shots are never counted here. Pucks lost in the defensive zone are -0.6 points, and a puck lost in the offensive zone is -0.5 points.
- Individual expected goals for – Every shot taken in a game has a percent chance of scoring based on the type of shot and location of where the shot was taken. These numbers have been calculated from years of research. This number is added as the number is. If a player finishes a game with a 0.38 individual expected goals in a game, that’s what gets added.
- On ice excepted goals for – Same setup as before, just for every player on the ice when that players team takes a shot. This stat I find to be much more important and is worth 1.5x the amount of a number. If a player finishes with an on ice expected goals for of 1, 1.5 will be added.
- Penalty drawn = 0.8
The Defenseman:
- Goal = 1
- Assist = 1
- Breakouts created* – Breakouts created is my exit stat. A defenseman getting the puck out of the zone is one of the most important parts of the game. A problem I have with many similar stats as this is the fact that I feel like they put too much emphasis on the blue line and an official exit. With my stat a defenseman does not have to pass it out past the blue line for their exit to count. They can also be past the blue line and their pass can still count. Any play made that’s helping the team move forward will qualify here. There’s two different categories here. Short passes and board passes which are worth 0.7, and long passes and skate outs which are worth 0.8.
- Jumps* – Jumps are when a defenseman jumps into a play to help create offense. This can either be on a rush chance or during an offensive zone cycle. As long as the defenseman is moving out of their traditional position and helps create offense. Jumps are worth 0.8.
- Pinches* – Pinches are when a defenseman makes an aggressive and generally risky play to keep the puck in the offensive zone. Usually this play is a poke or hit along the boards near the blue line. Pinches are worth 0.7.
- Rebounds created = 0.8
- Pucks lost* – For defenseman pucks lost in the defensive zone is -0.7, a puck lost in the offensive zone is -0.4.
- Individual expected goals for = added as is.
- On ice excepted goals for = Forwards on ice excepted goals for is added at 1.5x the number. For defenseman it is added at 1.25x the number to account for playing more minutes.
- Penalty drawn = 0.8
Everything that goes into even strength defense:
The Forwards:
- Good forechecks* – A good forecheck is when a forward puts pressure on the other team in their defensive zone. These usually happen behind the other Teams net. As long as a player is making an effect on the other team getting the puck or getting the puck out of their zone, it’s a good forecheck. A good forecheck is worth 0.5.
- Stick checks* – Stick checks are pokes, stick lifts and really any one on one defensive play that makes an effect on the other team. Either a player can get the puck for their team or themselves but even if it doesn’t get possession as long as it makes an effect on what the other player is doing it counts. Stick checks are worth 0.6.
- Turnovers forced* – Turnovers forced is when a player intercepts a pass. Unlike stick checks these are not a one on one play, only stealing the puck from passes counts here. Turnovers forced are worth 0.5.
- Effective hits* – Outside of maybe plus minus hits may be my most disliked stat in hockey. There are so many hits in a game that have no effect on the game and could actually do more bad than good taking a player out of position for no reason. After a game I’ll see a player or team a certain amount of hits and be left thinking, really? That doesn’t seem right at all. Effective hits are just like stick checks where it only takes the plays that either get a player‘s team the puck, or affect what the other player is doing. Effective hits are worth 0.6.
- Blocked shot = 0.25
- On Ice expected goals against = -1.5x the expected goals against number.
- Penalty taken = -1
The Defenseman:
- Stick check = 0.8
- Turnover forced = 0.7
- Effective hit = 0.8
- blocked shot = 0.4
- on ice excepted goals against = -1.25x the expected goals against number.
- penalty taken = -1
For power play and penalty kill all of those numbers stay the same and are added to whatever situation that player was in. The only difference here is that all expected goals count as is and aren’t multiplied by 1.5 or 1.25. Power play and penalty kill also account for actual goals, where goals for and against in both situations are + or – 1.
Here’s a few notes when looking at a player’s numbers. Since the categories are structured differently the raw numbers themselves shouldn’t be compared. All the numbers that aren’t expected goals are structured so that an average player’s defense and offense ratings end up being the same. But since expected goals is a large factor it skews the categories quite a bit, where the offense category is much higher but that doesn’t mean a players defensive value is actually that low or bad, but that still can be the case. On top of that the defensive ratings are much closer together than the offensive ratings which I think makes sense. Especially for forwards I’d assume there’s a bigger gap between a top end player’s offense than a top end player’s defense compared to more low end players. I have every player’s category ranked which helps with some numbers being so close together. Ice time is a pretty important factor into a players value and I have every player’s ice time shown and ranked so don’t disregard that. In a more ideal system and what I plan to have in the future is league percentages. Instead of having rankings I could show where a player’s overall finished among the league whether being in the top 75% of players or top 25%. Sadly the Flyers are the only team these numbers exist for so we’ll just have to live with the Flyers rankings for now but it’s still better than nothing. I have all of the players ranked by total overall but also show their overall per game which is what’s most important. All player’s individual rankings are in parentheses.
Now finally after all of that here’s the actual numbers. I only have players who were given a fair chance to show what they had and were given a good amount of ice time. There are 13 forwards and 8 defenseman and they are split into two different categories. All rankings are where that player finished in their position.
1 Claude Giroux
- Ice time – even strength: 795m (1) – power play: 141m (2) – penalty kill 39m (6)
- Even strength offense: 124.46 – 2.3 per game (3)
- Even strength defense: 9.84 – 0.1 per game (10)
- Power play: 67.80 – 1.2 per game (1)
- Penalty kill: 2.26 – 0.04 per game (3)
- Overall: 204.72 – 3.7 per game (2)
Giroux was the MVP of this Flyers season to me. Gave it his all every night and did great in all situations. His ESD is 10th which I was very surprised by because I think he was great defensively at times but the amount of offense he produced outweighs that entirely. Amazing power play player and we saw him on the left side a large majority of the season which I think helped him a lot. Giroux clearly still has lots of juice left in him and plenty of more productive years.
2 Sean Couturier
- Ice time – even strength: 661m (8) – power play: 117m (5) – penalty kill: 90m (2)
- Even strength offense: 108.57 – 2.4 per game (1)
- Even strength defense: 38.76 – 0.8 per game (2)
- Power play: 40.37 – 0.8 per game (4)
- Penalty kill: 9.26 – 0.2 per game (1)
- Overall: 196.96 – 4.3 per game (1)
Couturier missed 11 games, finished 6th in total ice time among forwards and still finished tops in almost all the categories. Finished first in per game overall and it wasn’t even close. A lot of the season Couturier was playing with Van Riemsdyk and Farabee. They definitely trailed off the more they played with each other but when it was on it was carrying the team. Van Riemsdyk and Farabee were scoring and making plays and Couturier chipped in offensively and took care of all the defensive responsibilities as he always has. World class player and another great season from him.
3 Jake Voracek
- Ice time – even strength: 754m (3) – power play: 138m (4) – penalty kill: >10m
- Even strength offense: 127.26 – 2.4 per game (2)
- Even strength defense: -11.42 – -0.2 per game (12)
- Power play: 55.49 – 1.0 per game (3)
- Penalty kill: 0.6 – 0.0 per game
- Overall: 171.93 – 3.2 per game (3)
Pretty much got what we expected from Voracek this season. Voracek does such a great job of creating offense and setting up players in great positions. Consistently made great passes on the power play all year. His defensive game has never been his strength but his value is in making plays with the puck. The Flyers will be losing a very important piece if he is not here next season.
4 James van Riemsdyk
- Ice time – even strength: 771m (2) – power play: 151m (1) – penalty kill: >10m
- Even strength offense: 92.67 – 1.6 per game (7)
- Even strength defense: 14.43 – 0.2 per game (7)
- Power play: 62.28 – 1.1 per game (2)
- Penalty kill: 1.36 – 0.02 per game
- Overall: 170.74 – 3.0 per game (4)
Performed well below his ice time at even strength but his power play goals from the beginning of the season is really where Van Riemsdyk shined this year. I absolutely love his net front ability and tip goals. cooled down towards the middle and end of the season but goals in bunches is something we should expect from Van Riemsdyk by now.
5 Joel Farabee
- Ice time – even strength: 687m (6) – power play: 110m (7) – penalty kill: 79m (3)
- Even strength offense: 113.16 – 2.0 per game (4)
- Even strength defense: 19.36 – 0.3 per game (5)
- Power play: 35.4 – 0.6 per game (7)
- Penalty kill: -0.46 – 0.0 per game (4)
- Overall: 167.5 – 3.0 per game (5)
Big breakout season from Farabee. Scored at about a 30 goal pace in an 82 game season. Showed off his great shot all year and also finished the leader in good forechecks with 59 while playing the 6th most minutes at even strength. Just an all around very good player. Looks like we’ve got ourselves a real shoot first kind of player that we’ve wanted for a while now.
6 Travis Konecny
- Ice time – even strength: 680m (7) – power play: 113m (6) – penalty kill: >10m
- Even strength offense: 93.07 – 1.8 per game (5)
- Even strength defense: 10.08 – 0.2 per game (9)
- Power play: 36.44 – 0.7 per game (6)
- Penalty kill: 0.5 – 0.0 per game
- Overall: 140.08 – 2.8 per game (6)
Konecny just didn’t have it this year. I’ve personally never been as high on him as most are but even I could see there just wasn’t something right with him this year. Never really saw any explosive instances that we’re used to seeing from him this year. I’m sure his scoring will be much improved next year.
7 Nolan Patrick
- Ice time – even strength: 577m (9) – power play: 91m (8) – penalty kill: 19m (8)
- Even strength offense: 71.51 – 1.3 per game (9)
- Even strength defense: 39.41 – 0.7 per game (3)
- Power play: 28.26 – 0.5 per game (8)
- Penalty kill: 0.23 – 0.0 per game (5)
- Overall: 139.4 – 2.6 per game (7)
There’s been multiple instances this year where I went on about how I believe Patrick is a good player. Not only do I think calling him a bust is completely ridiculous, he actually showed positive value here. Was on pace for his offensive numbers with his ice time and was great defensively. At just 22 I believe Patrick is an elite defensive player and given better situations and linemates his offense will improve. Being a 2nd overall pick sets some unfair expectations on a player and means nothing to a player’s development. Some players take longer to find their groove especially with the setbacks he’s had. If you don’t believe in him I’d say you clearly don’t look deep enough into these things and need to give him time.
8 Kevin Hayes
- Ice time – even strength: 751m (4) – power play: 139m (3) – penalty kill: 71m (5)
- Even strength offense: 94 – 1.7 per game (6)
- Even strength defense: -14.53 – -0.2 per game (13)
- Power play: 46.68 – 0.8 per game (5)
- Penalty kill: -4.16 – -0.07 per game (7)
- Overall: 122 – 2.2 per game (9)
Hayes struggled to get going a lot of this season. Luckily once the season ended we found out Hayes was going to have surgery for something that was bothering him throughout the season. I thought Hayes wasn’t too bad to start the season which gives me confidence that he’ll be back and playing better next season. Hayes finished last in defense among forwards, Flyers gave up a lot of chances with him on the ice and he was not as aggressive as he was the previous season. His penalty kill usage was also much less than he got the year before so we didn’t get to see him quite as much there.
9 Scott Laughton
- Ice time – even strength: 710m (5) – power play: >10m – penalty kill: 96m (1)
- Even strength offense: 81.73 – 1.5 per game (8)
- Even strength defense: 13.14 – 0.2 per game (8)
- Power play: 0.69 – 0.01 per game (11)
- Penalty kill: -1.16 – -0.02 per game (6)
- Overall: 94.39 – 1.7 per game (10)
There were times this year especially later on in the season where I was not a fan of the way Laughton played. I thought he was being completely overused for what he was bringing. Turned the puck over way too much and with his offensive production that was a big problem for me. Laughton signed a 5 year 3 million dollar deal at the deadline which I was feeling ok about. It’s longer than I would prefer but he was a safe option for the team and a guy who’s been in the organization for a long time, it shouldn’t hurt the team too much in the future.
10 Nicolas Aube-Kubel
- Ice time – even strength: 545m (11) – power play: >10m – penalty kill: >10m
- Even strength offense: 56.65 – 1.1 per game (13)
- Even strength defense: 27.93 – 0.5 per game (4)
- Power play: 0 – 0.0 per game
- Penalty kill: 0.5 – 0.01 per game
- Overall: 85.08 – 1.7 per game (11)
Penalties… lots and lots of penalties. Not only that but it seemed like just about every single one of them were either a hook or a slash in the neutral zone. Aube Kubel was still a fairly effective forechecker but I think we were all expecting a little bit more bite to his game.
11 Michael Raffl
- Ice time – even strength: 388m (12) – power play: >10m – penalty kill: 37m (7)
- Even strength offense: 39.51 – 1.1 per game (11)
- Even strength defense: 11.65 – 0.3 per game (6)
- Power play: 0 – 0.0 per game
- Penalty kill: 4.16 – 0.1 per game (2)
- Overall: 55.32 – 1.6 per game (12)
Raffl was traded at the deadline after 8 seasons with the flyers. Always loved the guy and was having a fine year with the Flyers but with the logjam of young players ready to play in the bottom 6, I think it was his time to go.
12 Oskar Lindblom
- Ice time – even strength: 556m (10) – power play: 25m (8) – penalty kill: 75m (4)
- Even strength offense: 51.51 – 1.0 per game (13)
- Even strength defense: 2.01 – 0.04 per game (11)
- Power play: 5.31 – 0.1 per game (10)
- Penalty kill: -8.74 – -0.1 per game (8)
- Overall: 49.73 – 0.9 per game (13)
Tough season for Oskar. We know he’ll be back and stronger next season. Absolute warrior.
13 Wade Allison
- Ice time – even strength: 157m (13) – power play: 23m (9) – penalty kill: >10m
- Even strength offense: 17.41 – 1.2 per game (10)
- Even strength defense: 27.93 – 1.9 per game (1)
- Power play: 6.36 – 0.4 per game (9)
- Penalty kill: 0.6 – 0.04 per game
- Overall: 34.48 – 2.4 per game (8)
Allison played 14 games for the Flyers this season and looked great. Finished first in even strength defense per game but that’s because of the small sample size, his possession numbers were very good but with more games they likely would’ve dropped a bit. His offense isn’t that high because outside of scoring goals there wasn’t that much else he was doing offensively but that does not mean he was bad at all. Showed a want for shooting the puck and had good scoring ability as well as being great on the forecheck, really looking forward to seeing more of Allison in the future.
1 Ivan Provorov
- Ice time – even strength: 1,106m (1) – power play: 134m (1) – penalty kill: 158m (1)
- Even strength offense: 201.77 – 3.6 per game (2)
- Even strength defense: 32.46 – 0.5 per game (7)
- Power play: 41.3 – 0.7 per game (2)
- Penalty kill: -8.73 – -0.1 per game (3)
- Overall: 266.8 – 4.7 per game (2)
This was not what I expected to get from Provorov this year. Playing with Braun a majority of the season didn’t help but I thought Provorov would be ready to carry a pair at this point but that doesn’t seem to be the case just yet. A lot of his numbers are lifted from the minutes he plays but even then he finished 7th in defense per game which is not what you want from your 1. Was solid on breakouts and everything else wasn’t all that great. Still has great potential and I still think he’s on his way to being this teams best defenseman for years.
2 Shayne Gostisbehere
- Ice time – even strength: 698m (5) – power play: 112m (2) – penalty kill: >10m
- Even strength offense: 156.35 – 3.8 per game (1)
- Even strength defense: 41.93 – 1.0 per game (3)
- Power play: 49.8 – 1.2 per game (1)
- Penalty kill: 0 – 0.0 per game
- Overall: 248.08 – 6.0 per game (1)
I said it all throughout and after about how good Gostisbehere was this year. Didn’t start the season due to injury but once he was in there he never looked out of it. Started out with Provorov on the top pair which was very effective. Later on he was usually being played on the bottom pair which I disagreed with heavily. He was by far the Flyers best puck mover all year, was putting up decent point totals and I really don’t even think his defensive game was bad this year. A lot of people didn’t notice how good he was because I’m sure all they’re looking for from Gostisbehere is flash but I really do think he was our most effective player on defense this year. The Flyers will be missing a lot if he’s not here next season.
3 Travis Sanheim
- Ice time – even strength: 1,053m (2) – power play: 32m (4) – penalty kill: 114m (3)
- Even strength offense: 158.75 – 2.8 per game (3)
- Even strength defense: 44.51 – 0.8 per game (4)
- Power play: 1.91 – 0.03 per game (5)
- Penalty kill: -11.03 – -0.2 per game (4)
- Overall: 194.14 – 3.5 per game (4)
There honestly isn’t too much to say about Sanheim this year. The Sanheim Myers pair didn’t work out at all this year and once they were taken away from each other their games improved. Didn’t score like we expected to and it was a pretty meh season for Sanheim all around.
4 Justin Braun
- Ice time – even strength: 848m (3) – power play: >10m – penalty kill: 129m (2)
- Even strength offense: 133.03 – 2.51 per game (4)
- Even strength defense: 67.83 – 1.2 per game (2)
- Power play: 0 – 0.0 per game
- Penalty kill: -15.94 – -0.3 per game (5)
- Overall: 184.92 – 3.4 per game (5)
Braun was obviously overused as a first pair defenseman a lot which is above his skill level. I’ve loved Justin Braun ever since he’s been with the Flyers and I think he’s a great defensive defenseman and a good penalty kill guy when in the proper role.
5 Phil Myers
- Ice time – even strength: 760m (4) – power play: >10m – penalty kill: 64m (4)
- Even strength offense: 109.27 – 2.4 per game (5)
- Even strength defense: 67.16 – 1.5 per game (1)
- Power play: .33 – 0.0 per game
- Penalty kill: 3.66 – 0.08 per game (2)
- Overall: 180.42 – 4.1 per game (3)
Myers was pretty similar to Sanheim this season. They were both terrible with each other this year and once they played away from each other their games improved. Myers still finished first in defense because of his ability to make aggressive plays but his positioning was still a little out of whack.
6 Erik Gustafsson
- Ice time – even strength: 356m (7) – power play: 59m (3) – penalty kill: >10m
- Even strength offense: 48.54 – 2.0 per game (6)
- Even strength defense: 14.75 – 0.6 per game (6)
- Power play: 11.1 – 0.4 per game (3)
- Penalty kill: 0 – 0.0 per game
- Overall: 74.39 – 3.0 per game (6)
Gustafssons’ time with the Flyers wasn’t all that great. Was good on the power play and that was just about it. Had 0 redeeming qualities in his defensive game and was extremely prone to bad turnovers. Gustafsson was gone by the deadline 50% retained which was the right move for the team and the player giving him another chance somewhere else.
7 Robert Hagg
- Ice time – even strength: 472m (6) – power play: >10m – penalty kill: 56m (5)
- Even strength offense: 42.95 – 1.2 per game (7)
- Even strength defense: 18.29 – 0.5 per game (8)
- Power play: 0 – 0.0 per game
- Penalty kill: -12.33 – -0.3 per game (6)
- Overall: 48.91 – 1.4 per game (7)
At this point we know Hagg is best used as a 7th defenseman and that’s just about what we got from him this year. I don’t think he has any one thing he’s very good at and I really don’t like his style of play but I understand his role in the organization. Next year could very well be his last here with the Flyers still having lots of defenseman in the system looking to come up.
8 Samuel Morin
- Ice time – even strength: 162m (8) – power play: >10m – penalty kill: 11m (6)
- Even strength offense: 6.41 – 0.4 per game (8)
- Even strength defense: 11.66 – 0.7 per game (5)
- Power play: 0 – 0.0 per game
- Penalty kill: -0.03 – 0.0 per game (1)
- Overall: 18.04 – 1.1 per game (8)
The stats I have here are only from his games at defense. Morin at forward was not going to work and it was great to see him get another chance at defense. The Morin Gostisbehere pairing was great towards the end of the season. Morin at 6’7 was great at using the body and threw some big hits. Nothing much after that. Morin likely will be seeing more AHL games next year with acquisitions on defense and lots of defenseman in the system.
