Photo Courtesy of Philadelphia Flyers PR
This past Friday, the Philadelphia Flyers signed right-winger Owen Tippett, to a $49.5 million dollar eight year extension. The average annual value of the deal is $6.2 million.
Between the years 2026 and 2030, the contract will have a modified no trade clause in place, which includes a ten team no trade list.
With the Flyers making an eight year commitment to Tippett, the 24-year-old is set to be a major part of the organization until 2032. Based on his play since joining the Flyers this is a fair value deal for both Philadelphia and the player.
The hope, from the Flyers perspective, is Tippett will develop his game even further, as this contract unfolds. Similarly to Travis Konecny, who showed another level to his play during his age 25 season in the NHL. Even if Tippett tops out as a perennial 25-30 goal scorer, who is a threat off the rush, and in transition the contract should still age well for the Flyers.
With the NHL salary cap projected to rise $4.2 million dollars to $87.7 million next season (as per statements by Gary Bettman). Tippett’s 6.2 million dollar deal won’t be occupying as large a percentage of the salary cap moving ahead. Especially, in comparison to what contracts of similar value currently are taking up, salary cap percentage wise.
Due to that, Philadelphia’s contract with Owen Tippett could become a steal depending on just how much Tippett’s play progresses and if he can turn his typical 25-30 goal a year production into 40 or 45 goals.
Contract Comparables
When taking into account other contracts signed recently that have similar cap hit percentages; and Tippett’s unique skill set which may enable him to get to that all star player type level. It’s evident a 6.2 million dollar cap hit is fair market value. The comparable contracts even prove such when looking at the statistics of the players who signed similar deals and Tippett’s overall production as a Flyer.
Brandon Hagel:
Hagel is listed as a 94.3 % match in terms of how comparable his contract is to Owen Tippett’s (as per Cap Friendly). The contract was signed in August of last summer and is an eight year deal with a $6.5 million dollar cap hit per year.
Considering Hagel scored 30 goals and 64 points in 81 games last season while Tippett produced 27 goals and 49 points in 77 games. The contracts are comparable because although Hagel topped Tippett’s production last season the Flyers power-play being last in the NHL and the Lightning’s being third was likely a large factor.
It should be noted that Tippett is currently out-producing Hagel in the goal scoring department this season with 18 goals in 45 games. Hagel has scored 16 goals this season and a total of 43 points in 50 games. Once again showing how similar the production is for these players despite the fact that Tippett is more of a goal scorer and Hagel is a pass first player in most scenarios.Â
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Currently, Hagel’s $6.5 million dollar cap hit is 7.78% of the $83.5 million dollar salary cap ceiling comparatively, Tippett’s $6.2 million AAV is 7.43% of that same salary cap maximum (as per Cap Friendly).
With the cap set to rise in the near future, both contracts are set to assume even less of the total salary cap for their respective teams. With the production Tippett brings forth this makes the $6.2 million dollar cap hit even more of a bargain.
Troy Terry:
Another comparable contract to that of Owen Tippett’s is the seven year deal recently signed by Anaheim Ducks right-winger Troy Terry last August. According to Cap Friendly, Terry’s contract is an 82.2 % match to Tippett’s deal.
The cap hit on Terry’s deal is $7 million dollars (which takes up 8.38 % of the $83.5 million dollar salary cap) while Tippett’s is $6.2 million (and takes up 7.43% of that same salary cap). Terry was likely given a larger AAV than Tippett due to the fact that the winger has already produced a 37 goal season previously in his career, while Tippett has yet to reach that 30 goal mark.
Nonetheless, both players are similar in the sense that they are shoot first wingers that utilize their shots to create a large amount of their scoring opportunities.
With the contract the Flyers gave Tippett, it’s obvious they expect him to reach that 30 goal plateau sooner rather than later.
Shots On Net and Shot Attempts
One significant aspect of Tippett’s play that separates him from many players within the NHL is his shot. The forward has a wrist shot and one timer with a ton of velocity behind it and can beat goalies from distance as a result.
Tippett utilizes that shot regularly because of his speed. Specifically, his shot and speed in transition and through the neutral zone have been integral parts of the Flyers offense since he joined the organization.
His ability to produce a high volume of shot attempts and shots on net, on a regular basis is a critical piece of his play that makes Tippett a highly valuable offensive commodity.
When dissecting Tippett’s shots on goal per game and shot attempt metrics this season, he’s one of the top players in the league in relation to getting shots on net game after game, along with a large number of shot attempts.
The winger averages 3.63 shots on net per game which places him at 18th in the NHL at the moment (as per Stat Muse). Additionally, Tippett is 16th in the league in total shot attempts so far this regular season with 167 (as per Stat Muse).
The fact that Tippett is amongst the league leaders in the shot metrics listed above further demonstrates his offensive value and his ability to consistently produce shots on net and shot attempts. In turn, this positively contributes to the Flyers overall offensive outlook.
With Tippett set to turn only 25 in the next few weeks, he has yet to enter his best offensive NHL seasons which bodes well for the idea that these shot metrics might even increase as the forward’s game continues to develop and progress.
Final Thoughts
Overall, Owen Tippett is a scoring winger that has considerable upside when looking at his style of play and skill set.
Tippett’s shown on multiple occasions that he can take over shifts and even full games through the use of his speed in transition to create several odd man rushes and scoring chances. However, one thing that has plagued him has been consistently creating those types of chances and playing in such a manner on a game to game basis.
If Tippett can put everything together, and become a player that can regularly use his shot and speed to affect the outcomes of games positively for the Flyers, the winger will be well on his way to justifying and surpassing the on ice value a $6.2 million dollar contract would typically represent for an NHL scoring winger.
Time will ultimately tell if Tippett can reach that next level of becoming a perennial 30 plus goal scorer. One thing that’s certain is he has the talent to do so.
