Photo Credit: Our very own Ricky Brown
After Saturday’s 3-0 loss taking on the Vancouver Canucks the Philadelphia Flyers find themselves 1-3-1 to start the 2024-25 season.
Through these five games there’s been a plethora of trends and statistics to point out. I’ll be releasing articles in five game intervals analyzing the interesting facets and trends I’ve noticed within the Flyers play.
As we get closer to the end of the article series, a better understanding of what exactly this Philadelphia Flyers team is this season, including their strengths and weaknesses should be developed.
5 Observations
1) Struggles at five on five:
In relation to their even strength play Philadelphia has not looked like a cohesive unit through the majority of the first five games this season.
Although they’ve had stretches where offensive opportunities were created, there’s been a lack of finish associated with many of their scoring chances. Along with an inability to sustain offensive pressure for prolonged periods of time once a chance has been created.
Much of this stems from their transitional play and the struggles the team has encountered moving the puck up the ice effectively and quickly on certain breakouts from their defensive zone.
In a lot of situations once the Flyers finally moved the puck up through the neutral zone and into the offensive zone their players on the ice would have to go for a shift change.
This has resulted in the Flyers overall offensive zone pressure and transitional offense not generating as many scoring opportunities as their opposition at five on five early this season.
When examining total scoring chances and high danger scoring chances created at five on five through five games this season Philadelphia has been significantly out chanced in both metrics.
In total the Flyers created 91 scoring chances and 30 high danger scoring chances through the first five games. On the other hand, they’ve given up 108 scoring chances and 44 high danger scoring chances.
That cements the idea that Philadelphia’s struggles sustaining offensive zone pressure and puck possession has likely had an effect on their scoring chance creation as a whole. In addition to their goal output at five on five.
It’s no surprise that the Flyers have been outscored 16-6 in five on five scoring to begin this season. When considering that statistic it explains why Philadelphia has started the campaign 1-3-1.
The ability to control the puck at 5 on 5, and move the puck up the ice in a timely fashion directly leads to scoring chance creation and goal scoring within the NHL. Ultimately, the disjointed play in this area has a direct correlation with the Flyers lack of scoring to start the season.
One thing to note is the Flyers were a very good five on five team throughout the 2023-24 season. With most of the roster being similar there’s certainly a possibility the habits that made Philadelphia an effective five on five team last season start to creep back into their game.
2) The power-play has improved:
A very large question mark heading into the 2024-25 season was the Flyers power-play and if it could improve. Obviously, it’s still very early into the season however the power-play has continued to look better just as it did during the preseason.
Primarily, the puck movement on the power-play has looked less hesitant. That was a major flaw of Philadelphia’s man advantage last season.
There’s been struggles with zone-entries on the power-play that will require some adjustment but when Philadelphia has effectively entered the zone and controlled the puck they’ve typically created scoring opportunities. Largely due to their quick puck movement and attempts to create plays from low to high.
Another key factor in the power-play’s early proficiency has been Matvei Michkov. Michkov’s creativity and the skill he possesses to create offense when he has time and space adds a whole new element to Philadelphia’s power-play.
Currently, the Flyers are 11th in the NHL in power-play efficiency. They’ve converted 5 out of 22 total power-play opportunities so far this season for a 22.7 % conversion rate.
3) Shot Suppression has regressed compared to last season:
One common trend that has spanned the Flyers first five games has been their regression in shot suppression.
Last season the Flyers were second in the NHL in shots against per game played (SA/GA) and allowed on average 27.13 shots per game. Comparatively this season Philadelphia is 21st in the same metric and has allowed on average 30.0 shots per game.
Despite the difference in shots allowed per game being roughly three more this season than last, it’s still a considerable surge to note. Such an increase could impact overall scoring chances and high danger scoring chances allowed for Philadelphia if it continues.
4) Michkov looks like Philadelphia’s most dangerous offensive player:
Over the span of five games Matvei Michkov consistently looks like Philadelphia’s most dangerous offensive weapon.
When assessing scoring chances and opportunities created this season Michkov is typically at the center of them for Philadelphia.
His playmaking ability and hockey IQ has been on full display in just five games.There’s already several occasions where he’s set up his teammates for quality scoring chances in all types of offensive situations.
In certain circumstances it appeared as though there may not be a play to make. But Michkov’s vision and creativity still found a teammate or opened up a passing lane to create a play nonetheless.
Through five games Michkov has registered two goals and two assists for a total of four points. This places the talented rookie at second overall in rookie scoring at the moment behind Logan Stankoven who has seven assists in six games played.
5) Sam Ersson has been very sharp while Ivan Fedotov has not:
The final observation I’ve had during the course of these first five games relates to Philadelphia’s goaltending situation. Both Sam Ersson and Ivan Fedotov are on completely different spectrums right now as it relates to their on-ice performances.
Through four appearances Ersson has registered a pedestrian 0.894 % save percentage and 2.99 goals against average.
Despite that, the 25-year-old netminder has been Philadelphia’s most consistent player to start the season and arguably their best player as well.
Ersson had a stellar showing in the opening game of the season and played very well taking on Edmonton and Vancouver.
His save percentage and goals against average does not reflect the fact that he kept Philadelphia in all three of the games he’s started during specific stretches of play.
Unfortunately, the Flyers defensive shortcomings and missed coverages led to situations where Ersson either did not have the chance to make a save or was being overwhelmed by scoring chances in a short interval that eventually led to goals against.
Ersson’s back-up goaltender Ivan Fedotov’s performances over two games has been nothing short of atrocious.
There’s been many times when the netminder has looked slow while tracking the puck laterally and when cross ice passes were made by the opposition.
Additionally, it looks like the 27-year-old has experienced difficulties with screens in front of his net. In particular, how to deal with traffic trying to block his view of the puck.
Instead of trying to look around screens situated in front of him, Fedotov has attempted to look over-top of skaters on the ice. With his large stature this has opened the rookie up to allowing several goals through his five hole or his body over his first two starts.
In two games Fedotov has recorded a 0.818 % save percentage along with a 6.09 goals against average.
To ensure he remains the back-up goalie for the Flyers moving forward and is not supplanted by (fellow former KHL goaltender) Alexei Kolosov in the coming months; Fedotov will have to provide more stability and reliability in net for Philadelphia.
One aspect to take into account when it relates to Fedotov is it’s still very early in his NHL career. Ersson started off his NHL career in a similar manner to Fedotov with an abysmal save percentage. In his first three starts last season Ersson put forth save percentages of 0.800 %, 0.720 %, and 0.778 % respectively.
As a result, the example above with Ersson exhibits that Fedotov and his ability to rebound should not be entirely dismissed.
Consequently, a larger sample size is needed to determine the 6’7 netminder’s overall dependability as a back-up at the NHL level.
